Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
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When India was the new trend, companies had a gold-rush mentality. Now companies are taking a more mature, sober attitude.
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The typical pattern with a natural disaster like this is that the regional economy gets clobbered but you can barely see it in the national statistics. This time it is very different because of the impact on the energy infrastructure.
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Of that 8.9 percent, maybe a third of it was weather-related. The rest of it is underlying trend of weakness in the housing market. You are seeing pervasive signs of weakness.
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Natural gas prices are going to go through the roof in the next couple of months, and that is going to hurt a lot of families.
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Let's be clear -- for the next couple of months the employment numbers are going to look terrible. There's going to be a lot of noise and problems gathering the data, so it's going to be tougher than usual to sift through the tea leaves and really get at the heart of what's going on here.
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Rather than the doom and gloom we've been hearing, the consumer hasn't packed it in, and Christmas sales will be reasonably good.
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A strong economy and post-hurricane reconstruction boosted growth in November and could keep housing strong through early 2006.
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The Fed seems to have engineered a soft landing.
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Record-high profits, combined with solid economic growth and rising capacity utilization will translate into robust capital spending - all good news for the industrial sectors of the economy.
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These high energy prices are beginning to spill over into the rest of the economy. Finally, airlines are able to raise ticket prices and hotels are able to raise room rates and on and on.
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There is no question that the deficit this year will be worse than last year. A number of the improvements in May were temporary.
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There is no question that we are going out in this year with a lot of momentum.
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We seem to be able to absorb serial shocks.
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We are just starting to see the impact of Katrina. We are going to see awful inflation numbers, awful employment numbers and awful industrial production numbers for a few months.