Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
confident core fed higher inflation oil record though year
It is encouraging that core inflation in 2005 was no higher than the year before even though we had record oil prices. From that perspective, the Fed can feel confident that inflation won't get out of control.
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This is an economy where airlines are paying record prices for jet fuel, and yet it is very hard to pass through those costs.
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The most pleasant surprise and remarkable development in 2005 has been the resilience of the US and Asian economies to record high oil prices.
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The fundamentals for strong capital spending remain in place - record corporate profits and an economy that will post solid growth.
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I think the way out of these deficits is that the U.S. currency will start to come down over the next two to three years.
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Record-high profits, combined with solid economic growth and rising capacity utilization will translate into robust capital spending - all good news for the industrial sectors of the economy.
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Record-high energy prices did not spill over into the rest of the economy.
feels
When it is up around 6%, it feels a lot worse.
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While inflation remains tame, inflationary pressures keep building. Thus, the Fed can't let its guard down.
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We are headed for a Katrina-induced soft patch, but I would not interpret this as the early warning of a recession.
environment
We are in a much more competitive environment than we were 20 years ago.
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We are just starting to see the impact of Katrina. We are going to see awful inflation numbers, awful employment numbers and awful industrial production numbers for a few months.
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There is no question that we are going out in this year with a lot of momentum.
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There is no question that the deficit this year will be worse than last year. A number of the improvements in May were temporary.