Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
clearly economy fourth good growing growth labor last market payroll rebound seeing similar soft spot
The labor market is growing at a pretty good pace. We're clearly seeing a rebound in the economy from the soft spot we experienced in the fourth quarter, and I think we'll see payroll growth similar to last year.
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A strong economy and post-hurricane reconstruction boosted growth in November and could keep housing strong through early 2006.
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The G-7 is quite impotent on oil. They can say what they want, but they won't have a lot of effect on prices.
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The fundamentals for strong capital spending remain in place - record corporate profits and an economy that will post solid growth.
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The U.K. tried to cool off the housing market and slow their economy a bit, and they're caught in a situation where the economy is slowing but inflation isn't mostly because of oil prices, ... It's a bit of a dilemma, and that's reflected in their split vote.
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The typical pattern with a natural disaster like this is that the regional economy gets clobbered but you can barely see it in the national statistics. This time it is very different because of the impact on the energy infrastructure.
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These high energy prices are beginning to spill over into the rest of the economy. Finally, airlines are able to raise ticket prices and hotels are able to raise room rates and on and on.
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All housing indicators point to a slowdown that is in full swing: falling home sales, rising inventories, and now falling starts and permits.
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The higher energy costs will put a squeeze on both businesses and households. They're spending so much on energy - the households on gasoline, the airlines on jet fuel, for example - that they'll have to curtail elsewhere.
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The industrial production numbers in the next two months will look pretty awful as the full impact of the hurricane-related shutdowns shows up in the data.
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A lot will depend on how weak housing gets, in terms of whether we go into a real soft patch or not. That's the key here.
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The economy is on a somewhat stronger growth trajectory.
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The losers were on the low end. Retailers like Wal-Mart had a pretty lackluster holiday shopping season because their customers were hit the hardest by the energy situation.
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The main thing is cost-savings which radiate out in the form of lower prices for high-tech goods, and higher profit margins for the companies,