Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
fall growth hit
We will take a hit to growth but we won't fall into a recession.
consumer good growth news relying
The good news for the U.S. is that growth has diversified. We aren't just relying on the consumer and housing.
feels
When it is up around 6%, it feels a lot worse.
environment
We are in a much more competitive environment than we were 20 years ago.
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While there is no room for complacency, the Fed can take comfort in the fact that core inflation remains tame, despite some modest inflationary pressures. Global Insight predicts that the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle.
early headed interpret soft warning
We are headed for a Katrina-induced soft patch, but I would not interpret this as the early warning of a recession.
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We are just starting to see the impact of Katrina. We are going to see awful inflation numbers, awful employment numbers and awful industrial production numbers for a few months.
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When India was the new trend, companies had a gold-rush mentality. Now companies are taking a more mature, sober attitude.
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There is beginning to be evidence that high energy prices are starting to spill over into the rest of the economy.
bought buying cars earlier later people thinking year
With these discounts out there, people who were thinking of buying cars later in the year bought them earlier instead.
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The problem is the combined effects of the disruptions from Katrina and Rita, plus the ripple effects in the economy from higher energy prices,