Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
housing maybe pervasive rest seeing signs third trend underlying weakness
Of that 8.9 percent, maybe a third of it was weather-related. The rest of it is underlying trend of weakness in the housing market. You are seeing pervasive signs of weakness.
fuel hard high hit housing landing marketing prices soft worry
The big uncertainty is how much of a hit the housing marketing will take. Is it going to be a hard landing or a soft landing? I worry about that much more than I worry about high fuel prices right now.
early economy growth housing november strong
A strong economy and post-hurricane reconstruction boosted growth in November and could keep housing strong through early 2006.
bit caught cool economy housing inflation market mostly oil reflected situation slow slowing split tried
The U.K. tried to cool off the housing market and slow their economy a bit, and they're caught in a situation where the economy is slowing but inflation isn't mostly because of oil prices, ... It's a bit of a dilemma, and that's reflected in their split vote.
falling full home housing point rising starts
All housing indicators point to a slowdown that is in full swing: falling home sales, rising inventories, and now falling starts and permits.
depend housing key patch soft terms weak whether
A lot will depend on how weak housing gets, in terms of whether we go into a real soft patch or not. That's the key here.
currency deficits next start three
I think the way out of these deficits is that the U.S. currency will start to come down over the next two to three years.
capacity capital combined economic good growth industrial news rising robust solid spending translate
Record-high profits, combined with solid economic growth and rising capacity utilization will translate into robust capital spending - all good news for the industrial sectors of the economy.
energy prices rest spill
Record-high energy prices did not spill over into the rest of the economy.
confident core fed higher inflation oil record though year
It is encouraging that core inflation in 2005 was no higher than the year before even though we had record oil prices. From that perspective, the Fed can feel confident that inflation won't get out of control.
feels
When it is up around 6%, it feels a lot worse.
fed guard inflation pressures remains
While inflation remains tame, inflationary pressures keep building. Thus, the Fed can't let its guard down.
early headed interpret soft warning
We are headed for a Katrina-induced soft patch, but I would not interpret this as the early warning of a recession.
environment
We are in a much more competitive environment than we were 20 years ago.