Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh
Nariman Behravesh is Chief Economist at the consulting firm IHS Inc. and author of Spin-Free Economics: A No-Nonsense, Nonpartisan Guide to Today's Global Economic Debates. Directing the entire economic forecasting process at IHS, he is responsible for developing the economic outlook and risk analysis for the United States, Europe, Japan, China and other emerging markets. He oversees the work of over 400 professionals, located in North America, Europe, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and Africa who cover economic, financial...
housing maybe pervasive rest seeing signs third trend underlying weakness
Of that 8.9 percent, maybe a third of it was weather-related. The rest of it is underlying trend of weakness in the housing market. You are seeing pervasive signs of weakness.
change consumer economic economy economy-and-economics felt few growth headed job likely mostly next oil period related strong weakness
Because the economy is strong and job growth is strong, the consumer has not felt much pain, but that is likely to change in the next few months, ... I think we are headed for a period of economic weakness mostly related to the oil situation.
depend housing key patch soft terms weak whether
A lot will depend on how weak housing gets, in terms of whether we go into a real soft patch or not. That's the key here.
currency deficits next start three
I think the way out of these deficits is that the U.S. currency will start to come down over the next two to three years.
capacity capital combined economic good growth industrial news rising robust solid spending translate
Record-high profits, combined with solid economic growth and rising capacity utilization will translate into robust capital spending - all good news for the industrial sectors of the economy.
energy prices rest spill
Record-high energy prices did not spill over into the rest of the economy.
confident core fed higher inflation oil record though year
It is encouraging that core inflation in 2005 was no higher than the year before even though we had record oil prices. From that perspective, the Fed can feel confident that inflation won't get out of control.
feels
When it is up around 6%, it feels a lot worse.
fed guard inflation pressures remains
While inflation remains tame, inflationary pressures keep building. Thus, the Fed can't let its guard down.
early headed interpret soft warning
We are headed for a Katrina-induced soft patch, but I would not interpret this as the early warning of a recession.
environment
We are in a much more competitive environment than we were 20 years ago.
awful employment few impact industrial inflation numbers production starting
We are just starting to see the impact of Katrina. We are going to see awful inflation numbers, awful employment numbers and awful industrial production numbers for a few months.
question year
There is no question that we are going out in this year with a lot of momentum.
deficit last number question worse year
There is no question that the deficit this year will be worse than last year. A number of the improvements in May were temporary.