Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silveris an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseballand elections. He is currently the editor-in-chief of ESPN's FiveThirtyEight blog and a Special Correspondent for ABC News. Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA, a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionJournalist
Date of Birth13 January 1978
CityEast Lansing, MI
CountryUnited States of America
The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.
Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome.
I'm not trying to do anything too tricky.
We need to stop, and admit it: we have a prediction problem. We love to predict things—and we aren’t very good at it.
The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves.
I've just always been a bit of a dork.
Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
Plenty of pundits have really high IQs, but they don’t have any discipline in how they look at the world, and so it leads to a lot of bullshit, basically,
If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
We speak for them. We imbue them with meaning.
Economy is not baseball, where the game is always played by the same rules.