Nate Silver
Nate Silver
Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silveris an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseballand elections. He is currently the editor-in-chief of ESPN's FiveThirtyEight blog and a Special Correspondent for ABC News. Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA, a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionJournalist
Date of Birth13 January 1978
CityEast Lansing, MI
CountryUnited States of America
Well, you know, you're not going to have 86 percent of Congress voted out of office.
When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake.
Success makes you less intimidated by things.
We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.
Data-driven predictions can succeed-and they can fail. It is when we deny our role in the process that the odds of failure rise. Before we demand more of our data, we need to demand more of ourselves.
The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake.
To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.'
The signal is the truth. The noise is what distracts us from the truth.
I've just always been a bit of a dork.
We're living in a world where Google beats Gallup.
The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.
A lot of things can't be modeled very well.
If you aren't taking a representative sample, you won't get a representative snapshot.