Nigel Gault
Nigel Gault
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This is the unusual episode that we've had so many rate hikes in a row.
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This latest report is unmistakable evidence of an improving economy. What you have to look for is evidence that the fourth-quarter slowdown in economic growth will continue. And this jobs report is evidence that just the opposite is happening.
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Activity levels remain solid, indicating continued high demand for services. The outlook for early 2006 looks positive.
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Companies have reached the limits of what they can do with their work forces. They have to hire more workers.
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The bottom line is that the job market carried good momentum and the economy can weather the temporary hit from the hurricanes.
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That's given them a source of funds to keep spending.
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There is a risk that we will push up above 2 percent, not necessarily over the next month but sometime over the next few months. That will be a concern to the Fed.
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Clearly the slowdown in housing will mean slower growth in the overall economy. The big question mark is how much damage there will be.
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For the construction workers, there will be probably not be so much work in new residential building, but there will be work in nonresidential building and there will also be work in reconstruction projects in the hurricane-affected areas. It's a mixed bag for construction.
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It seems that companies are continuing to find new ways to apply advanced technology to increase output per worker. It has been really incredible how much extra output companies have been able to pump out without dramatically increasing staffing.
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The initial reaction of the market is to say that this makes it less likely that the Federal Reserve will be able to stop rising rates just yet.
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These figures suggest that growth is stable but not extremely strong. These figures should add to the conviction in financial markets that the Fed will soon be able to stop raising rates.
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The economy has begun 2006 with plenty of momentum.
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For a long time we've been looking for consumer spending to slow down, ... It's a question whether this is a trigger for a broader slowdown in consumer spending and the housing market.