Nigel Gault
Nigel Gault
august bigger dragged fourth growth hit impact measured possible quarter september
It is possible that the hurricanes that hit in August and September had a bigger impact on measured GDP growth in the fourth quarter than in the third. ... The hurricanes probably dragged on investment, too.
good greatly growth labor last reports strength suspect third underlying
Growth was very good in the third quarter. We really suspect that the last two reports greatly understated the underlying strength of the labor market.
appeared couple far gasoline growth healthy holiday looks months per prices spending
Excluding autos, spending growth looks healthy -- not a blockbuster holiday season, but far better than it appeared a couple of months ago when gasoline prices were over $3 per gallon.
economic economy-and-economics evidence growth improving jobs latest opposite report
This latest report is unmistakable evidence of an improving economy. What you have to look for is evidence that the fourth-quarter slowdown in economic growth will continue. And this jobs report is evidence that just the opposite is happening.
clearly damage economy-and-economics growth housing mark mean overall question slower
Clearly the slowdown in housing will mean slower growth in the overall economy. The big question mark is how much damage there will be.
add conviction extremely fed figures financial growth markets raising soon stable stop suggest
These figures suggest that growth is stable but not extremely strong. These figures should add to the conviction in financial markets that the Fed will soon be able to stop raising rates.
believe growth numbers rest soft throughout today view
We believe the numbers today are confirming our view that growth will be soft throughout the rest of the year.
areas auto boost consumers cooler fall likely malls pick return spending weather
With consumers likely to return to the malls from the auto showrooms, spending in other areas will pick up again, especially once cooler weather arrives to give a boost to fall clothing,
adding creation effects hurricane job point rather
We are now at the point where Hurricane Katrina's effects are adding to job creation rather than detracting from it.
case consumer dead spending stops suddenly turn
I don't think it's the case that we suddenly turn off the tap, and consumer spending stops dead in its tracks. It's more gradual.
deficit few widening within
Within a few months, the deficit will be widening to new records.
consumers faster increasing spending
U.S. consumers have been increasing their spending much faster than their incomes.
continue deficit energy goods higher katrina products services since states united united-states
The goods and services deficit will continue to widen, especially since after Katrina the United States will be importing more energy products at higher prices.
asking associated energy gets magnitude mentioned movements needs question reason sort start
The reason (recession) gets mentioned . . . is that (energy price) movements of this sort of magnitude usually would be associated with recession. So you do have to start asking the question, ... The question needs to be asked, even if we think things are different on this occasion.