Nigel Gault
Nigel Gault
adding creation effects hurricane job point rather
We are now at the point where Hurricane Katrina's effects are adding to job creation rather than detracting from it.
august bigger dragged fourth growth hit impact measured possible quarter september
It is possible that the hurricanes that hit in August and September had a bigger impact on measured GDP growth in the fourth quarter than in the third. ... The hurricanes probably dragged on investment, too.
areas auto boost consumers cooler fall likely malls pick return spending weather
With consumers likely to return to the malls from the auto showrooms, spending in other areas will pick up again, especially once cooler weather arrives to give a boost to fall clothing,
case consumer dead spending stops suddenly turn
I don't think it's the case that we suddenly turn off the tap, and consumer spending stops dead in its tracks. It's more gradual.
good greatly growth labor last reports strength suspect third underlying
Growth was very good in the third quarter. We really suspect that the last two reports greatly understated the underlying strength of the labor market.
deficit few widening within
Within a few months, the deficit will be widening to new records.
consumers faster increasing spending
U.S. consumers have been increasing their spending much faster than their incomes.
continue deficit energy goods higher katrina products services since states united united-states
The goods and services deficit will continue to widen, especially since after Katrina the United States will be importing more energy products at higher prices.
asking associated energy gets magnitude mentioned movements needs question reason sort start
The reason (recession) gets mentioned . . . is that (energy price) movements of this sort of magnitude usually would be associated with recession. So you do have to start asking the question, ... The question needs to be asked, even if we think things are different on this occasion.
chances consumers continue federal increase raise rates reserve sign until
There is no sign at all now that US consumers have started to tighten their belts. This will increase the chances that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates up until May.
scholars-and-scholarship start stop unusual
It wouldn't be unusual at all for them to stop and start again.
coming core costs energy expect finished goods higher inflation katrina pass prices rising saying
Energy prices were rising before Katrina hit, and while those costs didn't make their way through to finished goods in August, we have to expect higher core inflation in coming months. Firms are saying that they've absorbed so much already that they have to pass on these costs.
believe carry consumers harder longer price prices stay whether
Of course, we don't know whether the price is going to stay at $3. But the longer prices stay at this level, the harder it is to believe that consumers will just carry on doing what they were doing.
appeared couple far gasoline growth healthy holiday looks months per prices spending
Excluding autos, spending growth looks healthy -- not a blockbuster holiday season, but far better than it appeared a couple of months ago when gasoline prices were over $3 per gallon.