Richard Berner
Richard Berner
bit economy-and-economics eliminate prices push quite slack until
There's still quite a bit of slack in the economy, and you can't push through prices until you eliminate that slack.
compared easy past reading year
Reading (the Fed) has been trivially easy over the past year and a half, compared to what's it's going to be.
energy erase fall feeling growth improve mix prices
Energy prices will have to fall substantially and growth will have to improve to erase the feeling that the growth/inflation mix will be unpleasant.
downside fed inflation low makers policy risks seen statement sure
Fed policy makers made a statement that they want to really underpin the recovery. They've seen the downside risks and they want to make sure that low inflation and disinflation does not morph into deflation.
banks bond coming fed hard inflation market message pricing signals smoke stock thick
The U.S. stock market is pricing in a hard landing, an acceleration of inflation and a Fed that may or may not come to the rescue. Part of that message is emanating from the bond market and part of it is coming from some thick smoke signals that the banks are sending.
abroad dollar earnings global good growth help policy spur weaker
Ultimately, a weaker dollar will spur policy shifts abroad that will be good for global growth. Ultimately, that will help earnings as well.
expect fed federal funds increase rate rather september stop
We now expect the Fed to increase the federal funds rate to 5.25% by September rather than stop at 5%.
change faces investors learn means monetary policy street wall
Investors on Wall Street are going to have to learn a lot about these new faces before they feel comfortable. I don't think this means any change in monetary policy but there are new people.
change changing constant employment five guess jobs keeps nature technology work
Change is a constant of the U.S. employment picture. New technology keeps changing the nature of work and the nature jobs. I can't tell you what new technology will have spawned new jobs five years from now, but my guess is there will be one.
few home next prices
Home prices will rust, not bust, for the next few years.
doubt factor hope iraq means spring
I don't think there's any doubt that the uncertainty over Iraq has been corrosive, but it's by no means the only factor hindering growth. The hope that if you take away that uncertainty and you unveil a coiled spring is probably overdone.
balance fed funds likely move rate reaches risks sidelines until
The balance of risks now suggests that the Fed is not likely to move to the sidelines until the funds rate reaches that level,
latitude question space timing
They will still go. Absolutely. Definitely. There's no question about it. They now have a little latitude to space the timing of the increases, but there's no question they will move.
decline drop likely looks sales vehicle
It's likely we got a decline in sales. We've had a drop in vehicle sales and it also looks like back-to-school was on the disappointing side.