Richard Berner
Richard Berner
economy economy-and-economics housing prices sales surprise
I think the surprise will be that housing prices and housing sales will decelerate, but the economy will do just fine.
crude farms hold people price tank
Why should people hold crude in tank farms if they think the price is going to come down?
believes consistent current policy price
Certainly, current policy is ultra-accommodative and no policy-maker believes that it is consistent with price stability,
bit economy-and-economics eliminate prices push quite slack until
There's still quite a bit of slack in the economy, and you can't push through prices until you eliminate that slack.
energy erase fall feeling growth improve mix prices
Energy prices will have to fall substantially and growth will have to improve to erase the feeling that the growth/inflation mix will be unpleasant.
few home next prices
Home prices will rust, not bust, for the next few years.
biggest change china economies economy global happens increases issue price seeing states strong united
The issue is does OPEC think the global economy is strong enough to withstand the change in price. It just so happens that the economies that are seeing the biggest price increases -- the United States and China -- are also the strongest.
companies costs cut effort eliminate excesses force hiring jobs million overboard work
I still see that companies went overboard in slashing their work force in an effort to cut costs and to eliminate the hiring excesses of the 1990s. I think we have a shortfall of about 1.8 million jobs to make up.
account budget current deficits expanding market pay
With the current account and the budget deficits now expanding together, market participants may pay more attention.
bust consumer spending worries
Worries of a housing-led consumer spending bust are overblown.
bust contribute courtesy crash home past reduced values wave
I don't think home values will crash -- they will rust, not bust. Demographics have underpinned demand, courtesy of a wave of immigration in the past 16 years that reduced supply, and you don't see the speculative overhang that could contribute to a bust in home values.
activity both carry corporate downside earnings economic equity fed pace premium recession risk time values
If we are right that both the pace of economic activity and corporate earnings are still fraught with near-term, downside risk, equity values and risk spreads will carry a recession uncertainty premium for some time -- a premium that the Fed will still want to counter.
earnings fearing people surprise
With many people fearing a profitless recovery, earnings will probably surprise to the upside.
either higher move rates remarks timing year
Greenspan's remarks will be significant, either because of what he does say or what he doesn't say, ... They will move rates higher this year but the timing of that may have changed.