Richard Berner
Richard Berner
none oil shocks supply tax
Oil shocks are a tax on growth, and this is no exception. None of us know how long this supply shock is going to last.
biggest change china economies economy global happens increases issue price seeing states strong united
The issue is does OPEC think the global economy is strong enough to withstand the change in price. It just so happens that the economies that are seeing the biggest price increases -- the United States and China -- are also the strongest.
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The US economy is currently in the midst of the most profound hiring shortfall of any modern-day business cycle.
fourth improvement quarter slow
The fourth quarter is going to be very sluggish, indeed. We'll see some improvement in the first quarter, but it's a slow grind.
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The key reason: Dwindling economic slack and escalating costs in the context of strong U.S. and global growth.
higher percent quarter rate
The unemployment rate in the first quarter should have been at least 6.3 percent -- significantly higher than January-February's 5.75-percent average,
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The underlying pace of the economy is strong. The fact that global growth is looking better will keep the economy strong through the balance of this year.
close
It's a close call, a very close call.
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The Fed truly wants to get inflation somewhat higher -- back into the comfort zone. Why not say where that comfort zone is?
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We believe the Fed will move further to contain future inflation risks.