Richard Cripps
Richard Cripps
catalyst earnings economy economy-and-economics estimates high looking lost moving second
You've lost your earnings catalyst so we're moving away from the second quarter. With the economy moderating you're looking at earnings estimates that are too high and have to come down.
buying earnings fight final flowing money optimism point stocks tone turn
You're getting money flowing back into some of these big stocks and the tone is good. What's powering it is optimism that at some point and time, we're going to get this final turn in earnings -- it's buying with the thought that you don't fight the Fed.
banks best calamity major
Any major calamity we've witnessed, the banks have been some of the best performers.
concern last noticeable pickup seen
We've seen a noticeable pickup in concern over the last two months.
reality setting
The reality is setting in on the AOL/Time Warner deal.
basis cut good looking market percentage point quarter situation
We've set up a situation where a 25 basis point (a quarter percentage point) cut is good but you're looking at a market that's desperate.
current fairly goes performs poorly technology time upside view
I'm of the view that the Nasdaq really goes into a consolidation, and historically, for technology, it really performs fairly poorly in the April-to-June time frame. So my view is that Nasdaq, on the whole, pretty much always goes into a consolidation pattern, not much upside from the current level.
clearly earnings issues
Clearly there's some issues over earnings this quarter.
change consistent earnings fairly key laid picture remains timeline
GE has laid out a fairly consistent earnings picture and the key will be to see if its timeline remains intact. Any change from that will be news.
driven microsoft
It's all driven by Microsoft at this point.
beyond earnings economy economy-and-economics financial interest markets
The big fundamental for financial markets is the economy and earnings beyond interest rates.
analogy bad energy good higher interest oil prices straw
It's the analogy of the straw and the camel's back. We keep loading the camel's back with straw and higher energy prices and interest rates. It's probably going to be what's good for oil is going to be bad for the rest of the market.
area clearly confidence fed financial higher hikes key pattern performing rate stocks watch
The key area to watch is what financial stocks will do. They've been performing well and it's clearly a pattern of higher highs. If they take this (interest rate hike) well, my confidence that we're getting to the end of these Fed hikes will increase.
beginning commentary companies earnings generally last looking month quarter talk third weeks
Analysts generally can talk to companies during the first two weeks of the last month of the quarter so what we'll be looking at is the beginning of the earnings pre-announcements or commentary for the third quarter.