Richard Cripps
Richard Cripps
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The markets are getting oversold and typically you're at levels where markets that are this oversold can have pretty good rallies. I think investors are cognizant of the fact that things are weak, but they also don't want to miss an incredible rally if one occurs.
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I think (the market) needs the ECI price deflator numbers coming in at acceptable levels, meaning that they don't raise the fear of inflation, it needs the Fed not raising interest rates in August and as we move toward the fall, continuing signs that the economy is moderating and that inflation is low.
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I think you are near (capitulation) at the moment and you are getting close to the bottom. Technology stocks are driven on the expectation and we're in a period now where expectations are being lowered. What you'll have happen is stocks will react to the fact that expectations are too low.
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I think if you are bullish here, you go back and look to the last time the Fed eased up on interest rates which was 1995, which, of course, was a good year for investors. The S&P shot up almost 35 percent. So using that as a guide, some investor think that is what we're going to see.
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But I think that the global picture in 1995 was a little bit more murky than it is today. Economy was slower than today. As we look at the world scene it is actually quite good. A lot of foreign economies are expected to grow a little bit faster than the U.S. economy this year. So that is a major difference. And again it probably keeps the Fed from decreasing or cutting interest rates anytime soon.