Richard Cripps
Richard Cripps
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I think that the correction that we've seen in the market averages, in the Nasdaq, is probably reflecting an inflection point for the equity market that's going to be not as focused on technology. It's going to be shifting more into the broader segments of the equity market.
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There is a lack of buyer conviction. The whole dynamic of the Nasdaq rise and correction is, in a broader sense, an inflection point. But investors just view it as weakness.
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I think if you are bullish here, you go back and look to the last time the Fed eased up on interest rates which was 1995, which, of course, was a good year for investors. The S&P shot up almost 35 percent. So using that as a guide, some investor think that is what we're going to see.
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This was a good, constructive quarter. The market overcame two problem areas: the Fed raising interest rates and high oil prices.
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Keep in mind most people are now working into the next quarter. The window dressing that has been powering the market may be gone.
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I think it's more a result of a fear of buyers being left behind.
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I would let this play out as opposed to trying to be brave and buying here.
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We have good optimism out there and that's always the time to think about what dark clouds are out there.
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We're looking at a 12 percent decline in earnings this year for the S&P 500, and that's the sharpest decline we've had since the last recession. The confidence level that one has in looking at those earnings is very low.
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The question today is more opportunistic. The question is exactly where can I be a buyer of America Online ( AOL ) or some of these other stocks that have been weakened?
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Wal-Mart highlights an economic transition from relying on consumers to relying on the private sector and capital spending. So, we're looking more at companies like Caterpillar rather than Wal-Mart.
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What this does is it keeps buyers away. It's a lack of buyers. And they would prefer some certainty.
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We're facing the realization that rising (interest) rates and rising stock prices are incompatible. The higher rates are really starting to make themselves felt.
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Whenever the market is as oversold as it is right now, it's typically been a good idea to do some buying. The question is what to buy and the lack of a 'go to' area is keeping investors on the sidelines.