Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
disastrous economist
You don't need an economist to tell you how disastrous they look.
begin issues posing problems solutions
There are other real issues we need to look into before we begin posing solutions to problems that don't exist.
economy-and-economics happening mixed results
We're getting sort-of mixed results with what is happening in the economy.
categories clearly consumers divided good lots main money optimism results shown spending
We're getting some very good spending going into the first quarter. It's interesting that while there is spending optimism, consumers are still clearly divided into two main categories -- those with lots of money and those that are hurting. That's why these monthly results have shown so much irregularity.
begin creates creep demand employees evidence fed gains generally inflation quite realize scenario starting wage worker
Worker productivity generally creates a scenario where employees realize they can begin to demand more for what they do. While the year-over-year productivity gains are still quite good, there is some evidence that wage inflation may be starting to creep in. The Fed won't like this.
cuts job seeing stay
We're still seeing job cuts in manufacturing, and it's going to stay that way for some time.
bonds focus good growth inflation market numbers reaction seeing strong year
But it was a strong year of growth and you see the inflation numbers were very, very tranquil. If anything, bonds are going to focus on inflation so we should be seeing a good bond market reaction to this.
change fed growth jobs last less month next number six weak zero
But even if you have a weak number next month, even if you get zero growth, you'd be averaging about 150,000 new jobs a month (for the last six months.) So the Fed would need to see something less than zero to change its mind.
cheering consumer digging economists makers odd ourselves people policy reasons saving spending
I find it just odd for all these economists and policy makers to be cheering for all this consumer spending when we're just digging ourselves into a hole. With all the obligations we have ahead, to retirees and to ourselves, we have all the reasons in the world for people to be saving more and be controlling their spending.
cause faster hiring
Those two things could come into collision, and cause you to get faster hiring in the first part of the year, then have it catches up with you later,
growth seen strong
What's going on here is we've got a lot of growth. We've seen very, very strong consumption.
bad case happen
You can make the case that bad things happen in October.
above average bad divides good job line market months normal performance recent recessions three
Two of the three recent months are above the midpoint line that divides the average layoff performance in recessions from normal layoff periods. This suggests the job market is getting to be more like it is in bad times than in good times,
attractive begins bond capital circle finds flow fully growth home instead looks markets money overseas push recover rest slow starts stock valued vicious wonderful yields
As the rest of the world begins to recover and capital finds a better home overseas because U.S. bond yields don't look attractive and the U.S. stock markets looks like it fully valued or overvalued, ... (then) money doesn't flow here. And when money doesn't flow here, it starts to push bond yields up, and that starts to slow our growth and make the stock market look worse, and you start to get into this vicious circle instead of this wonderful circle you're in now.