Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
economy-and-economics happening mixed results
We're getting sort-of mixed results with what is happening in the economy.
begin creates creep demand employees evidence fed gains generally inflation quite realize scenario starting wage worker
Worker productivity generally creates a scenario where employees realize they can begin to demand more for what they do. While the year-over-year productivity gains are still quite good, there is some evidence that wage inflation may be starting to creep in. The Fed won't like this.
consumer overall spending temper
The consumer still has life. It does temper the overall gain, but we're still going to see the consumer spending this quarter.
batch consistent consumer early numbers reports says seen severe signal soft softness spending strength
It's really a soft batch of numbers today. Nothing says 'recession' or severe slowdown but there is a consistent signal of softness that permeates these reports and belies some of the strength in consumer spending that we have seen early in the year.
consumer factors growth income line overall picks special spending tells trend unless
So while some special factors may be boosting spending, the overall trend of spending is well out of line with income growth. This tells us that this spending trend is unsustainable unless consumer income growth picks up sharply.
consumer disaster extra growth hurricane income period recent recovering spending true
During this recent period there may be some extra spending on the part of those recovering from hurricane disasters. But it is also true that comprehensive consumer spending has been outstripping income growth over this period,
change plans spending
I have no plans to do anything with it ? probably put it in the bank. I'm not going to change my spending habits.
cheering consumer digging economists makers odd ourselves people policy reasons saving spending
I find it just odd for all these economists and policy makers to be cheering for all this consumer spending when we're just digging ourselves into a hole. With all the obligations we have ahead, to retirees and to ourselves, we have all the reasons in the world for people to be saving more and be controlling their spending.
convinced doubt good holidays home numbers
No doubt the numbers look pretty good up and down the line. However, I'm not convinced yet that the holidays are home free.
cautionary glad guard markets maybe monetary
Maybe the markets are glad to know they've got a cautionary guard at the monetary door,
concerned fed fighting focused inflation
They are desperately concerned about maintaining inflation fighting credibility. So the Fed is not focused on inflation, it's focused on inflation in the future.
bonds correct fed market takes
The sell-off in bonds is for real and is the correct reaction. The Fed will need confirmation to act. The bond market won't. It takes no prisoners.
borrowing fed mistake
The Fed has never said this borrowing is a mistake and that this is a problem.
cards dates fed forces issues key sort
Credibility is a key here. The Fed can't go out hammering away at some of these issues and then say, 'Oh, never mind,' when one of the key dates comes. So I think that's something else that sort of forces the Fed to put its cards on the table.