Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
fed limits slower suggest
I think we're going to have a slower recovery, ... There are other things that suggest there are limits to what the Fed can do.
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We continue to see Federal Reserve officials saying they want the economy to grow as fast as it can, but they're the ones who determine where that speed limit is.
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What we see is a Fed president trying to be honest with us.
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There are rates that may not move at all and there are rates that may move opposite to what the Fed has done.
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This shows the Fed rate cut was really quite needed, ... and would probably suggest the Fed might have more work to do to hold things together.
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Worker productivity generally creates a scenario where employees realize they can begin to demand more for what they do. While the year-over-year productivity gains are still quite good, there is some evidence that wage inflation may be starting to creep in. The Fed won't like this.
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But even if you have a weak number next month, even if you get zero growth, you'd be averaging about 150,000 new jobs a month (for the last six months.) So the Fed would need to see something less than zero to change its mind.
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Most people were afraid that we'd start to see some inflation, but I don't think there's much here. The Fed still has its foot on brakes and will keep tapping them at regular intervals, but perhaps not as much as investors had been expecting.
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The sell-off in bonds is for real and is the correct reaction. The Fed will need confirmation to act. The bond market won't. It takes no prisoners.
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Credibility is a key here. The Fed can't go out hammering away at some of these issues and then say, 'Oh, never mind,' when one of the key dates comes. So I think that's something else that sort of forces the Fed to put its cards on the table.
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Each Fed Chairman has to go through his own, on-the-job, trial by fire. There is no other way.
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The rise, however, does not mean that housing is out of the woods -- far from it. The Fed is still hiking.
fed
This is a Fed that should be headquartered in Egypt, because it's in denial.
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This is what the market did in 1974, ahead of a slowdown in 1975, and the Fed continued to hike rates in the face of marginal data turning worse, ... I don't see where the Fed sees 'traction'.