Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
challenge few hand inflation issues labor sharp though turned
I don't think inflation is that much of a concern. However, there are still a few short-term issues at hand that could challenge spending, such as the labor market. Though it had improved, it hasn't yet turned a sharp corner.
assessment change economy fed growth job risks turnaround
How could we have such a turnaround in job growth and have the Fed find that it doesn't change its assessment of risks in the economy whatsoever?
bond details expect fear headline less market people report worries
I would expect the bond is going to do a lot better after this report. You look at this headline (and) it worries you, but then you look at the details in this report and you see what is going on. I think the more people look at this report today, the more they are going to like it, the less they are going to fear it, and the better the bond market is going to do.
challenge control danger history lessons party
I think that one of the lessons in history is that if any party has too much control, the danger is that they will go overboard. The challenge for this administration is going to be to keep control of things.
bigger deficit forecast foreign growth lower oil prices reasons relatively seems trade weak
The trade deficit seems to only get bigger and never recede. The reasons are clear, oil prices are up, foreign growth is still relatively weak and US growth is strong. There is no reason to forecast a lower deficit.
fed
This is a Fed that should be headquartered in Egypt, because it's in denial.
bigger deficit seems trade
The trade deficit seems to only get bigger and never recede.
activity based boost clear data drop fire further growth high housing level low mini prospects quite rates recent remains strong
Housing may get another mini boost from the recent drop in rates. These data do lag a bit. Still, it is clear that, low rates or not, housing is not on fire the way it once was. The level of activity remains quite high for housing. But the prospects for further growth do not look that strong based on momentum.
afraid brakes fed foot investors people perhaps regular start tapping
Most people were afraid that we'd start to see some inflation, but I don't think there's much here. The Fed still has its foot on brakes and will keep tapping them at regular intervals, but perhaps not as much as investors had been expecting.
built components main order orders particular picture showing
A lot of the main components are still showing weakness. We still have orders declining, and order backlogs haven't built up to any particular degree. This is the picture of a still-weak manufacturing sector.
change fed growth jobs last less month next number six weak zero
But even if you have a weak number next month, even if you get zero growth, you'd be averaging about 150,000 new jobs a month (for the last six months.) So the Fed would need to see something less than zero to change its mind.
cause faster hiring
Those two things could come into collision, and cause you to get faster hiring in the first part of the year, then have it catches up with you later,
above average bad divides good job line market months normal performance recent recessions three
Two of the three recent months are above the midpoint line that divides the average layoff performance in recessions from normal layoff periods. This suggests the job market is getting to be more like it is in bad times than in good times,
challenger continue impressed labor market rebound report sudden waters weakness
This really muddies the waters on jobs, ... I continue to see a lot of labor market distress, and I am more impressed by the sudden weakness in the Challenger report than by the rebound in the cantankerous ISM.