Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
begin creates creep demand employees evidence fed gains generally inflation quite realize scenario starting wage worker
Worker productivity generally creates a scenario where employees realize they can begin to demand more for what they do. While the year-over-year productivity gains are still quite good, there is some evidence that wage inflation may be starting to creep in. The Fed won't like this.
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The Federal Reserve has talked about the economy being in a soft spot -- well, it's really in a soft spot.
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The Federal Reserve, with the ink barely dry on its statement of intent to move in a measured pace, has begun a new theme that says 'measured' may be too slow.
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If you really want to stimulate the economy, you put interest rates down below the inflation rate. The lower the inflation rate goes, the harder it is to get the federal funds rate down below that.
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It means we sort of dodged another bullet on the inflation front. These kinds of numbers put the Federal Reserve in a difficult box. We don't have inflation, the economy is growing too fast, they are afraid it won't keep up, but it's hard for them to raise rates without any inflation on the doorstep.
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Everybody knows what the Fed is doing, but no one knows which move is going to impact the market. I call it a version of Federal Reserve water torture: a drop at a time and after a while it will drive you absolutely batty.
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No doubt the numbers look pretty good up and down the line. However, I'm not convinced yet that the holidays are home free.
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Maybe the markets are glad to know they've got a cautionary guard at the monetary door,
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They are desperately concerned about maintaining inflation fighting credibility. So the Fed is not focused on inflation, it's focused on inflation in the future.
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The sell-off in bonds is for real and is the correct reaction. The Fed will need confirmation to act. The bond market won't. It takes no prisoners.
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The Fed has never said this borrowing is a mistake and that this is a problem.
consumer overall spending temper
The consumer still has life. It does temper the overall gain, but we're still going to see the consumer spending this quarter.
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Credibility is a key here. The Fed can't go out hammering away at some of these issues and then say, 'Oh, never mind,' when one of the key dates comes. So I think that's something else that sort of forces the Fed to put its cards on the table.
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December looks weak but the November revision will stave off too much speculation of weakness.