Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
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Worker productivity generally creates a scenario where employees realize they can begin to demand more for what they do. While the year-over-year productivity gains are still quite good, there is some evidence that wage inflation may be starting to creep in. The Fed won't like this.
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I think some of the job growth has been pushed forward. Behind the surface of these very strong reports, there are signs the economy has begun to slow down.
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Some of the signals pointing to job market improvement simply did not bear fruit this month. The report makes the economy look even less like it is building a head of steam.
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Back before the recession, we had strong job growth and no inflation. There's fuzzy thinking going on here -- I thought we'd broken the old idea that strong growth is bad. As long as productivity growth can remain high, fast job growth is not a problem.
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People don't look at economic data. But they know their own firm, they know if it's solid, they know if it's hiring and if people are getting raises. Even if they're not looking for a job, they know what's going on with their brother or sister or friend's job search. That's what makes these surveys powerful.
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Private sector job growth is still challenged. The report is not very good for the month alone, but the trends have actually improved, thanks to the revisions.
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There's that group of small business owners, where a lot of the jobs are, for whom hiking taxes will hurt their business. They already face higher heating costs, insurance costs -- at some point, they may decide there are too many costs to run a business and decide it's not worth it any more.
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The American consumer is like that bad guy in a zombie movie; shoot him; stab him. He keeps coming forward. But in the case of the consumer, it's more like: depress his wage, make him unemployed, ruin his confidence make no job growth, lower his savings rate -- none of it matters, he or she just keeps on racking up those charges.
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How could we have such a turnaround in job growth and have the Fed find that it doesn't change its assessment of risks in the economy whatsoever?
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No doubt the numbers look pretty good up and down the line. However, I'm not convinced yet that the holidays are home free.
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Maybe the markets are glad to know they've got a cautionary guard at the monetary door,
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They are desperately concerned about maintaining inflation fighting credibility. So the Fed is not focused on inflation, it's focused on inflation in the future.
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The sell-off in bonds is for real and is the correct reaction. The Fed will need confirmation to act. The bond market won't. It takes no prisoners.
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The Fed has never said this borrowing is a mistake and that this is a problem.