Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
june months previous view
My view is the previous months were the aberrant month, and June makes more sense.
categories eating economy fact food gap growth impact last month product reduced sales stores time together
The fact that food sales outperformed other product categories last month is part of what's going on with the economy and its impact on consumers, ... Also, there was a time when Wal-Mart was eating everyone's lunch. Other stores have been getting their act together and they've reduced the growth gap between them and Wal-Mart.
change fed growth jobs last less month next number six weak zero
But even if you have a weak number next month, even if you get zero growth, you'd be averaging about 150,000 new jobs a month (for the last six months.) So the Fed would need to see something less than zero to change its mind.
above average bad divides good job line market months normal performance recent recessions three
Two of the three recent months are above the midpoint line that divides the average layoff performance in recessions from normal layoff periods. This suggests the job market is getting to be more like it is in bad times than in good times,
good growth job month private report sector thanks trends
Private sector job growth is still challenged. The report is not very good for the month alone, but the trends have actually improved, thanks to the revisions.
across fed horizons inflation left months rising six waiting wondering
Inflation is rising in more sectors than it is falling. It is doing so across horizons of one month, six months and 12 months. We are left in all this wondering what the Fed is up to and what it is waiting for.
compensate energy eventually fact itself month period prices work works
Eventually you have other prices going down to compensate for the fact that energy went up. But that doesn't work itself out in a month or two; it works out over a period of time.
fed limits slower suggest
I think we're going to have a slower recovery, ... There are other things that suggest there are limits to what the Fed can do.
challenge control danger history lessons party
I think that one of the lessons in history is that if any party has too much control, the danger is that they will go overboard. The challenge for this administration is going to be to keep control of things.
aware energy people prices
People are aware of what energy prices are doing to their pocketbooks, and their company,
consumer economy equity everybody happy housing increase negative partly people performance pull quite savings spending supported
While everybody is very happy with the performance of the economy under Greenspan, it's come at quite a price. We have a negative savings rate. The consumer has been out spending his and her income, partly supported by an increase in housing prices, where people had to pull a lot of the equity out of their home. Well they can't do that again.
bit consumer growth highly linking output spending
While consumer spending has sparked up a bit recently, linking it to better output growth is still highly speculative.
concerns continues evidence fears inflation
While concerns about inflation swirl, the evidence continues to give those fears little substance,
against maybe reason suggesting
We have a lot of things suggesting that maybe things have improved, ... I don't see any reason to go against the numbers.