Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
begin creates creep demand employees evidence fed gains generally inflation quite realize scenario starting wage worker
Worker productivity generally creates a scenario where employees realize they can begin to demand more for what they do. While the year-over-year productivity gains are still quite good, there is some evidence that wage inflation may be starting to creep in. The Fed won't like this.
below federal funds harder inflation interest lower rates stimulate
If you really want to stimulate the economy, you put interest rates down below the inflation rate. The lower the inflation rate goes, the harder it is to get the federal funds rate down below that.
afraid bullet difficult economy federal growing hard inflation kinds means numbers raise rates reserve sort
It means we sort of dodged another bullet on the inflation front. These kinds of numbers put the Federal Reserve in a difficult box. We don't have inflation, the economy is growing too fast, they are afraid it won't keep up, but it's hard for them to raise rates without any inflation on the doorstep.
appear few home levels near next rates rebound sales seen
Levels of home sales are still solid. And with rates falling, some (continued) rebound may be seen in the next few months. But we appear to be near to a peak.
ahead continued data face fed hike marginal market rates sees turning
This is what the market did in 1974, ahead of a slowdown in 1975, and the Fed continued to hike rates in the face of marginal data turning worse, ... I don't see where the Fed sees 'traction'.
core excited fed gotten hardly inflation low oil past raising rates year
I don't think there's anything the Fed can make better by raising rates faster, ... They've gotten rates up a lot in the past year already. Inflation had accelerated because of oil but core inflation is still low and hardly anything to get excited about.
activity based boost clear data drop fire further growth high housing level low mini prospects quite rates recent remains strong
Housing may get another mini boost from the recent drop in rates. These data do lag a bit. Still, it is clear that, low rates or not, housing is not on fire the way it once was. The level of activity remains quite high for housing. But the prospects for further growth do not look that strong based on momentum.
convinced doubt good holidays home numbers
No doubt the numbers look pretty good up and down the line. However, I'm not convinced yet that the holidays are home free.
cautionary glad guard markets maybe monetary
Maybe the markets are glad to know they've got a cautionary guard at the monetary door,
concerned fed fighting focused inflation
They are desperately concerned about maintaining inflation fighting credibility. So the Fed is not focused on inflation, it's focused on inflation in the future.
bonds correct fed market takes
The sell-off in bonds is for real and is the correct reaction. The Fed will need confirmation to act. The bond market won't. It takes no prisoners.
borrowing fed mistake
The Fed has never said this borrowing is a mistake and that this is a problem.
consumer overall spending temper
The consumer still has life. It does temper the overall gain, but we're still going to see the consumer spending this quarter.
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Credibility is a key here. The Fed can't go out hammering away at some of these issues and then say, 'Oh, never mind,' when one of the key dates comes. So I think that's something else that sort of forces the Fed to put its cards on the table.