Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
above average bad divides good job line market months normal performance recent recessions three
Two of the three recent months are above the midpoint line that divides the average layoff performance in recessions from normal layoff periods. This suggests the job market is getting to be more like it is in bad times than in good times,
consumer disaster extra growth hurricane income period recent recovering spending true
During this recent period there may be some extra spending on the part of those recovering from hurricane disasters. But it is also true that comprehensive consumer spending has been outstripping income growth over this period,
activity based boost clear data drop fire further growth high housing level low mini prospects quite rates recent remains strong
Housing may get another mini boost from the recent drop in rates. These data do lag a bit. Still, it is clear that, low rates or not, housing is not on fire the way it once was. The level of activity remains quite high for housing. But the prospects for further growth do not look that strong based on momentum.
certainly concerned fed recent subdued worried
It's a surprise. Certainly the Fed is worried about inflation, but it has been subdued in recent months, so I wouldn't be too concerned about that.
fed limits slower suggest
I think we're going to have a slower recovery, ... There are other things that suggest there are limits to what the Fed can do.
challenge control danger history lessons party
I think that one of the lessons in history is that if any party has too much control, the danger is that they will go overboard. The challenge for this administration is going to be to keep control of things.
aware energy people prices
People are aware of what energy prices are doing to their pocketbooks, and their company,
consumer economy equity everybody happy housing increase negative partly people performance pull quite savings spending supported
While everybody is very happy with the performance of the economy under Greenspan, it's come at quite a price. We have a negative savings rate. The consumer has been out spending his and her income, partly supported by an increase in housing prices, where people had to pull a lot of the equity out of their home. Well they can't do that again.
bit consumer growth highly linking output spending
While consumer spending has sparked up a bit recently, linking it to better output growth is still highly speculative.
concerns continues evidence fears inflation
While concerns about inflation swirl, the evidence continues to give those fears little substance,
against maybe reason suggesting
We have a lot of things suggesting that maybe things have improved, ... I don't see any reason to go against the numbers.
affected economy economy-and-economics gives magnitude
It doesn't tell you anything about the economy at this point. It just gives you some idea of the magnitude of the displacement in the affected area.
answer educated education people simply unemployed
There are so many low-paid people who are educated that education is simply not the answer. The answer is, you will be unemployed if this is not stopped.
affect consumer effect kinds lost money people seem stock wealth
Where was wealth effect during that time? ... The consumer didn't die. People lost all kinds of money in the stock market, and it didn't seem to affect them.