Robert Brusca
Robert Brusca
economy-and-economics happening mixed results
We're getting sort-of mixed results with what is happening in the economy.
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Worker productivity generally creates a scenario where employees realize they can begin to demand more for what they do. While the year-over-year productivity gains are still quite good, there is some evidence that wage inflation may be starting to creep in. The Fed won't like this.
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The Federal Reserve, with the ink barely dry on its statement of intent to move in a measured pace, has begun a new theme that says 'measured' may be too slow.
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You can't repeal the laws of economics. Wages in China are so cheap, that you'll never make labor cheap enough in the United States to compete with that.
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It's like saying we're not going to hit as hard if you fall from the 50th floor of the Empire State Building instead of the 100th floor of the Empire State Building. The question is, what floor are you going to jump from and is it really going to hurt you?
convinced doubt good holidays home numbers
No doubt the numbers look pretty good up and down the line. However, I'm not convinced yet that the holidays are home free.
cautionary glad guard markets maybe monetary
Maybe the markets are glad to know they've got a cautionary guard at the monetary door,
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They are desperately concerned about maintaining inflation fighting credibility. So the Fed is not focused on inflation, it's focused on inflation in the future.
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The sell-off in bonds is for real and is the correct reaction. The Fed will need confirmation to act. The bond market won't. It takes no prisoners.
borrowing fed mistake
The Fed has never said this borrowing is a mistake and that this is a problem.
consumer overall spending temper
The consumer still has life. It does temper the overall gain, but we're still going to see the consumer spending this quarter.
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Credibility is a key here. The Fed can't go out hammering away at some of these issues and then say, 'Oh, never mind,' when one of the key dates comes. So I think that's something else that sort of forces the Fed to put its cards on the table.
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December looks weak but the November revision will stave off too much speculation of weakness.
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The breadth of inflation is contained. Inflation pressures are not spreading. This (CPI) report has much more impressive signals than the PPI.