Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
ahead believe comparable consumer reason recovery toll
I think there's every reason to believe that another jobless recovery could be in the offing in the years immediately ahead -- one that would take a comparable toll on consumer demand.
along cannot mean
that doesn't mean that there cannot be some adjustments made along the way.
basis move question
The Fed's going to move 25 basis points; the question is what about after that.
china economic trouble
If that's the economic model, China is in trouble.
cuts expected experience results similar table tax
Like it or not, the experience of the 1980s demonstrates that supply-side tax cuts are not self-financing. In my opinion, similar results can be expected from the multi-year tax cuts now on the table in Washington.
fed regard staying
By staying disciplined with regard to inflationary policy, the Fed nips any inflationary expectations in the bud.
damage dangerous degree global surprise
There is a dangerous degree of complacency, and out of that comes a surprise that does the most damage to the global economy.
recession
The recession is not over. We will probably have a 'double dip,' another downturn, by spring.
economy forecast global outright recession scenario shifting united united-states
We are shifting to an outright recession scenario in the United States, and, in response, we are slashing our forecast of the global economy for 2001,
act context current cyclical demand extent growth likely lingering overall power questions raise serious sharp spending staying
To the extent such a payback is likely after the current spending burst, it could act as a sharp depressant on overall demand growth in subsequent quarters, ... That development, in the context of a lingering jobless recovery, could raise serious questions about the staying power of America's current cyclical resurgence.
continues developed drawn economies extent hiring impetus private serious
To the extent that hiring in high-wage, developed economies continues to lag, the sustainability of any impetus to private consumption can be drawn into serious question.
global plus question trade
Trade liberalization is a plus for global growth, no question about it.
demand economies external global major trade
With global trade screeching to such a standstill, so, too, should the external demand contributions of most major economies around the world,
gone
We've gone from one bubble, in stocks, to another, in housing.