Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
account begin believe currency current essential global good reason sharp value
There is good reason to believe that a sharp weakening in the value of the U.S. currency is essential to the global rebalancing that must begin to take place if the world's current account imbalances are to be corrected,
bill china closes deficit divert economy imposition portion simply steep trade
If the Schumer-Graham bill closes down U.S. trade with China through the imposition of steep tariffs, a saving-short U.S. economy will simply have to divert a significant portion of its multilateral trade deficit elsewhere.
adverse capital china consequences global markets opening pace risk run
I do not think that China is going to run the risk of accelerating its pace of opening up its capital markets because of adverse consequences in the global economy.
gone
We've gone from one bubble, in stocks, to another, in housing.
accepted alignment appear avoid balanced banking central closer dependence excess moving order pitfalls practice remarks
Greenspan's remarks appear to be more balanced than in the past. He is moving into closer alignment with what has become accepted practice in most central banking circles. Missing, however, is what a central bank should do in order to avoid the pitfalls of excess dependence on overvalued assets.
compared expansion growth past weak
Growth has been chronically weak when compared with any expansion of the past 40 years.
economy feeling prognosis time
I am feeling better about the prognosis for the world economy for the first time in ages.
demand economies external global major trade
With global trade screeching to such a standstill, so, too, should the external demand contributions of most major economies around the world,
borrowing endgame last needs risks seemed system unstable
Borrowing from physics, the last thing an unstable system needs is a shock. And yet the risks of just such a disturbance have never seemed higher. Far-fetched as it seems, the possibility of a more perilous endgame is rising.
global oil outright prospects recession shock
As the prospects of a full-blown oil shock rise, the prospects of outright global recession in 2005 loom more and more likely.
recession
The recession is not over. We will probably have a 'double dip,' another downturn, by spring.
damage dangerous degree global surprise
There is a dangerous degree of complacency, and out of that comes a surprise that does the most damage to the global economy.
great loved mine miss
Mine didn't even rhyme, ... But I loved him. He was a great man. I miss him. Put that in, will you.
confidence invested leaves markets
When he leaves ... he will take away 18 years of confidence the markets have invested in him.