Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
consumers energy good higher hit shocks stagnant wages
Consumers have stagnant real wages and they are getting hit with the shocks of higher energy prices. This is not a good combination for the overstretched consumer.
consumer economy energy focused housing increases itself key market sharp stay sustain whether
It's important to stay focused on the interplay between the consumer and the overextended housing market and sharp increases in energy prices, ... That will be key as to whether or not the US economy will sustain itself in 2006.
dramatic felt huge
It won't be a huge dramatic bursting, but it will be felt this year.
consumer global hardly problem rest taken
The vulnerability of the over-extended American consumer can hardly be taken lightly. That could well be a big problem for the rest of a US-centric global economy.
account adjustment case classic current dollar grows higher interest lead renewed term
The case for a classic U.S. current account adjustment grows more compelling. This could lead to renewed weakening of the dollar and higher long- term real interest rates.
cannot deficit economy global major property risk thinking
The major risk to the global economy is complacency. We cannot keep thinking that we can shrug off the deficit and the property bubble.
account address basis capital chinese commitment currency expect fully officials open tension waver
I fully expect that the Chinese officials will address these tension points, but will not waver from their steadfast commitment on a medium- to longer-term basis of an open capital account and currency convertibility,
coming downside months past risks several time warning
It's time to make it official. The downside risks we have been warning of over the past several months are now coming to pass.
basis move question
The Fed's going to move 25 basis points; the question is what about after that.
both chinese danger debate engines global last producer slow three whether
For the last three years, we've had a two-engine world: the Chinese producer and the American consumer. Both engines are going to slow down. The debate will be whether this two-engine global 747 is in danger of stalling.
civil dime gets job received rights sit victim
Why should the victim who has never received a dime sit back while the civil rights violator gets his job and back pay?
both chinese miracle threat viewed
Once viewed as an unparalleled opportunity, the Chinese miracle is now being viewed as a threat by both the U.S. and Japan.
ability bad china countries currency dependent forcing front move moving speed
China has been moving -- very slowly, but the speed is very much dependent on their ability to withstand reforms. The idea of forcing China and other countries to move on the currency front is a bad one.
country gets leadership outside senior
China's senior leadership gets it while many outside the country do not.