Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
confidence early markets prepared risk tenure
The risk is that he will be blind-sided, as his predecessors were, very early in his tenure by something he is not all that well prepared for and by something that the markets do not have confidence in him for.
bad biggest continue despite economy far
I continue to find Germany, by far Europe's biggest economy and still the third-largest economy in the world, the most interesting story of all. Germany, despite its bad press, is very much on the move.
compared expansion growth past weak
Growth has been chronically weak when compared with any expansion of the past 40 years.
account address basis capital chinese commitment currency expect fully officials open tension waver
I fully expect that the Chinese officials will address these tension points, but will not waver from their steadfast commitment on a medium- to longer-term basis of an open capital account and currency convertibility,
account adjustment case classic current dollar grows higher interest lead renewed term
The case for a classic U.S. current account adjustment grows more compelling. This could lead to renewed weakening of the dollar and higher long- term real interest rates.
business cycle goods modern resulting shock war
An extraordinary deflationary shock in tradable goods has coincided with outsize disinflation in services, resulting in the most deflation-prone business cycle of the modern post-World War II era.
damage dangerous degree global surprise
There is a dangerous degree of complacency, and out of that comes a surprise that does the most damage to the global economy.
recession
The recession is not over. We will probably have a 'double dip,' another downturn, by spring.
again angst both cannot cases certainly common early experience gains german germany pain worker
Today's German angst has much in common with the experience of the American worker in the early 1980s and again the early 1990s. For both cases in the U.S., there was no gain without pain. Germany is certainly going through the pain phase, but the gains cannot be minimized.
economy forecast global outright recession scenario shifting united united-states
We are shifting to an outright recession scenario in the United States, and, in response, we are slashing our forecast of the global economy for 2001,
bubble great property spending
The property bubble is nearing its end. This is the end of the great American spending binge.
act context current cyclical demand extent growth likely lingering overall power questions raise serious sharp spending staying
To the extent such a payback is likely after the current spending burst, it could act as a sharp depressant on overall demand growth in subsequent quarters, ... That development, in the context of a lingering jobless recovery, could raise serious questions about the staying power of America's current cyclical resurgence.
continues developed drawn economies extent hiring impetus private serious
To the extent that hiring in high-wage, developed economies continues to lag, the sustainability of any impetus to private consumption can be drawn into serious question.
global plus question trade
Trade liberalization is a plus for global growth, no question about it.