Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
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The United States has long drawn comfort from the quality differential of its educational system. However, in the Internet Age with its ubiquitous diffusion of knowledge, innovation, and technological change, that may turn out to be an increasingly false sense of security.
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An extraordinary deflationary shock in tradable goods has coincided with outsize disinflation in services, resulting in the most deflation-prone business cycle of the modern post-World War II era.
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Europe looks at China as more of a strategic partner than a competitive threat so it has stayed more out of the currency debate than the U.S..
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The risk is that he will be blind-sided, as his predecessors were, very early in his tenure by something he is not all that well prepared for and by something that the markets do not have confidence in him for.
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The same distortions, in my view, could well be explaining a lot of the recent strength in the remainder of the U.S. data flow. If that's the case, all it will take is for the weather to return to normal and the seasonally adjusted data will fall like a stone.
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There's a little bit of a sign of rust but no sign of bust in the U.S. property market. The weakest link of the global economy in 2006 is the U.S. consumer.
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This is the year to watch out carefully for the end of the great American spending binge.
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You've got war, SARS, uncertainty, and imbalances that will prevail after the war is over and until a cure for the disease is found.
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The West always seems to expect a hard landing in China. Yet in three instances over the past decade, China has proved the doubters wrong.
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That underscores the possibility of yet another shoe to fall in world growth -- all the more reason to stress the protracted nature of this global downturn.
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In my view, the perils of another burst asset bubble far outweigh the costs of another recession,
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He's the victim. He was beaten, abandoned, betrayed and his medical needs ignored by David Williams.
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By staying disciplined with regard to inflationary policy, the Fed nips any inflationary expectations in the bud.
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I continue to find Germany, by far Europe's biggest economy and still the third-largest economy in the world, the most interesting story of all. Germany, despite its bad press, is very much on the move.