Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
act context current cyclical demand extent growth likely lingering overall power questions raise serious sharp spending staying
To the extent such a payback is likely after the current spending burst, it could act as a sharp depressant on overall demand growth in subsequent quarters, ... That development, in the context of a lingering jobless recovery, could raise serious questions about the staying power of America's current cyclical resurgence.
demand economies external global major trade
With global trade screeching to such a standstill, so, too, should the external demand contributions of most major economies around the world,
ahead believe comparable consumer reason recovery toll
I think there's every reason to believe that another jobless recovery could be in the offing in the years immediately ahead -- one that would take a comparable toll on consumer demand.
along cannot mean
that doesn't mean that there cannot be some adjustments made along the way.
cuts expected experience results similar table tax
Like it or not, the experience of the 1980s demonstrates that supply-side tax cuts are not self-financing. In my opinion, similar results can be expected from the multi-year tax cuts now on the table in Washington.
economy forecast global outright recession scenario shifting united united-states
We are shifting to an outright recession scenario in the United States, and, in response, we are slashing our forecast of the global economy for 2001,
continues developed drawn economies extent hiring impetus private serious
To the extent that hiring in high-wage, developed economies continues to lag, the sustainability of any impetus to private consumption can be drawn into serious question.
again angst both cannot cases certainly common early experience gains german germany pain worker
Today's German angst has much in common with the experience of the American worker in the early 1980s and again the early 1990s. For both cases in the U.S., there was no gain without pain. Germany is certainly going through the pain phase, but the gains cannot be minimized.
broader case coming decade economic fed global policy recovery threat unlike view
Unlike the case a decade ago, I view the coming normalization of Fed policy as a much more serous threat to economic recovery in the U.S. and the broader global economy,
bubble great property spending
The property bubble is nearing its end. This is the end of the great American spending binge.
global plus question trade
Trade liberalization is a plus for global growth, no question about it.
area asia battered bruised economy effect extent global keeping lean left region resilience sars source
Unfortunately, the SARS effect is concentrated on Asia -- long the fastest-growing region in the world and the one area that essentially had been keeping the global economy afloat. To the extent that this source of global resilience is now being undermined by disease-related panic, an already bruised and battered global economy has little left to lean on.
knew labor united
For the United States, it's the end of labor as we once knew it.
accounting broader close component economy global hits large measures percent trade
Global trade is an increasingly large component of the world economy -- now accounting for close to 25 percent of global GDP. So when world trade hits the wall, so should the broader measures of global output.