Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
cuts expected experience results similar table tax
Like it or not, the experience of the 1980s demonstrates that supply-side tax cuts are not self-financing. In my opinion, similar results can be expected from the multi-year tax cuts now on the table in Washington.
china expect hard landing past proved seems three west
The West always seems to expect a hard landing in China. Yet in three instances over the past decade, China has proved the doubters wrong.
borrowing endgame last needs risks seemed system unstable
Borrowing from physics, the last thing an unstable system needs is a shock. And yet the risks of just such a disturbance have never seemed higher. Far-fetched as it seems, the possibility of a more perilous endgame is rising.
adverse capital china consequences global markets opening pace risk run
I do not think that China is going to run the risk of accelerating its pace of opening up its capital markets because of adverse consequences in the global economy.
consumers energy good higher hit shocks stagnant wages
Consumers have stagnant real wages and they are getting hit with the shocks of higher energy prices. This is not a good combination for the overstretched consumer.
global oil outright prospects recession shock
As the prospects of a full-blown oil shock rise, the prospects of outright global recession in 2005 loom more and more likely.
asset bubble burst costs far outweigh perils
In my view, the perils of another burst asset bubble far outweigh the costs of another recession,
economy feeling prognosis time
I am feeling better about the prognosis for the world economy for the first time in ages.
dramatic felt huge
It won't be a huge dramatic bursting, but it will be felt this year.
coming downside months past risks several time warning
It's time to make it official. The downside risks we have been warning of over the past several months are now coming to pass.
consumer global hardly problem rest taken
The vulnerability of the over-extended American consumer can hardly be taken lightly. That could well be a big problem for the rest of a US-centric global economy.
consumer economy energy focused housing increases itself key market sharp stay sustain whether
It's important to stay focused on the interplay between the consumer and the overextended housing market and sharp increases in energy prices, ... That will be key as to whether or not the US economy will sustain itself in 2006.
china currency debate europe looks partner stayed strategic threat
Europe looks at China as more of a strategic partner than a competitive threat so it has stayed more out of the currency debate than the U.S..
bill china closes deficit divert economy imposition portion simply steep trade
If the Schumer-Graham bill closes down U.S. trade with China through the imposition of steep tariffs, a saving-short U.S. economy will simply have to divert a significant portion of its multilateral trade deficit elsewhere.