Stephen Roach
Stephen Roach
adverse capital china consequences global markets opening pace risk run
I do not think that China is going to run the risk of accelerating its pace of opening up its capital markets because of adverse consequences in the global economy.
borrowing endgame last needs risks seemed system unstable
Borrowing from physics, the last thing an unstable system needs is a shock. And yet the risks of just such a disturbance have never seemed higher. Far-fetched as it seems, the possibility of a more perilous endgame is rising.
confidence early markets prepared risk tenure
The risk is that he will be blind-sided, as his predecessors were, very early in his tenure by something he is not all that well prepared for and by something that the markets do not have confidence in him for.
cannot deficit economy global major property risk thinking
The major risk to the global economy is complacency. We cannot keep thinking that we can shrug off the deficit and the property bubble.
coming downside months past risks several time warning
It's time to make it official. The downside risks we have been warning of over the past several months are now coming to pass.
ahead believe comparable consumer reason recovery toll
I think there's every reason to believe that another jobless recovery could be in the offing in the years immediately ahead -- one that would take a comparable toll on consumer demand.
along cannot mean
that doesn't mean that there cannot be some adjustments made along the way.
cuts expected experience results similar table tax
Like it or not, the experience of the 1980s demonstrates that supply-side tax cuts are not self-financing. In my opinion, similar results can be expected from the multi-year tax cuts now on the table in Washington.
economy forecast global outright recession scenario shifting united united-states
We are shifting to an outright recession scenario in the United States, and, in response, we are slashing our forecast of the global economy for 2001,
continues developed drawn economies extent hiring impetus private serious
To the extent that hiring in high-wage, developed economies continues to lag, the sustainability of any impetus to private consumption can be drawn into serious question.
act context current cyclical demand extent growth likely lingering overall power questions raise serious sharp spending staying
To the extent such a payback is likely after the current spending burst, it could act as a sharp depressant on overall demand growth in subsequent quarters, ... That development, in the context of a lingering jobless recovery, could raise serious questions about the staying power of America's current cyclical resurgence.
again angst both cannot cases certainly common early experience gains german germany pain worker
Today's German angst has much in common with the experience of the American worker in the early 1980s and again the early 1990s. For both cases in the U.S., there was no gain without pain. Germany is certainly going through the pain phase, but the gains cannot be minimized.
broader case coming decade economic fed global policy recovery threat unlike view
Unlike the case a decade ago, I view the coming normalization of Fed policy as a much more serous threat to economic recovery in the U.S. and the broader global economy,
bubble great property spending
The property bubble is nearing its end. This is the end of the great American spending binge.