Steven Wieting
Steven Wieting
again along benchmark change changes payroll picture question
Years from now, new benchmark revisions will come along and change the whole picture again -- which begs the question of how important these monthly payroll changes are. I think it's irresponsible to make too much of these reports.
benchmark case forecasts january underlying
Benchmark revisions could completely recast underlying data, in which case January forecasts won't be useful.
benchmark decline fit future household measure perfect seen
That kind of decline is a perfect fit with what we've seen in the household survey's measure of employment, ... if not in February, then in future benchmark revisions.
affects energy forecasts growth
I think energy affects us at every price. As we go marginally higher, growth forecasts get marginally weaker,
billion build companies declines demand growth inventory per quarter rate second third
We had unintentional inventory declines in the second and third quarters, which is what you would typically get in a recession. I think companies will need to build $50 billion per quarter in inventories, even if the demand growth rate is just 3.5 percent.
folks mechanics
I think it comes down to the mechanics of how folks were counted.
business continue cycle expansion expect fed fighting increased market policy somewhat successful visibility
We continue to expect a long, successful business cycle expansion amid well-known challenges. However, visibility has been somewhat reduced, and the Fed is not fighting off increased market expectations of policy tightening.
activity building conditions early employment gain growth judging last outlook period start strong unlikely unusually warm weather winter
Some of the conditions that have ripened the growth outlook at the start of 2006 are unlikely to last into spring. Abnormally warm weather boosted construction activity in December. ... Judging by a 46,000 gain in construction employment in January, the winter 2006 will go down as an unusually early and strong period for building activity.
credit gives healing nobody saw
We saw a lot of healing going on in 2002, and nobody gives any credit to it.
considered costs fact fantastic income living lower output recovering time
The fact that we can lower living costs at a time when output and income are recovering should be considered fantastic news.
data december difficult economic financial markets month raising rates winter
Year-end financial markets can be difficult, and winter economic data is difficult to read. It makes more sense that December will be month they skip. You don't want to be raising rates into what can be an illiquid market.
areas data included surprise
Today's data included well-known as well as surprise areas of weakness.
crude forecasts gas move oil pose prices recession
We're not at gas prices that pose some kind of a tipping point. There have been botched forecasts of a recession at every $10 move (higher) in crude oil futures.
gas pose prices
We're not at gas prices that pose some kind of a tipping point.