Alan Ruskin
Alan Ruskin
bond higher might pattern provide resolved terms trading
To some extent, the bond market's trading pattern has not been resolved of late. This might provide some resolution, and I think it is going to be resolved in terms of higher yields,
august backlash durable goods july past pattern relatively seen september strong weak
It is not a big surprise, some of it is kind of a backlash to this saw-tooth pattern that we have seen in durable goods in the past -- July was weak and August was very strong and now September is relatively weak.
bought found good inflation lucky numbers officials position rate time
I think (Fed officials have) found that they're in a lucky position where the inflation numbers are good enough that it's bought them some time (to postpone rate hikes),
attention clearly data dollar expect fed giving market quickly shift
While the data is clearly dollar positive, I would expect that the market will quickly shift back to the attention it is giving to Fed policy.
below headline jobs looking maybe numbers obviously plenty scratch sector slightly stronger weakness
Some of the headline (jobs) numbers maybe look slightly stronger than expected, but when you scratch below the surface, you find there is still plenty of weakness out there, ... Obviously the manufacturing sector is looking as weak as ever.
feels fresh require
It feels to me it will require something fresh to really get it going again.
data edge fed fodder provides
The data will keep the Fed on edge and provides fodder for the Fed hawks.
certainly data encourage fed views
The data will certainly encourage views of a truncated Fed tightening cycle.
correct data encourage fed inflation looks tend views
The data should tend to encourage views that the Fed is correct and that inflation looks to be contained.
asset change surprise
Would it surprise me that they would change their whole asset allocation dramatically? That would be more surprising.
change dollar fact guard mere per presidents seen snow
I don't think per se jettisoning Snow would be seen as dollar negative. The mere fact that we've got a change of guard isn't necessarily dollar negative. These things happen. Presidents do change personnel.
cut forthright future interest rates seeing seems
He seems to be more forthright in seeing a willingness to cut interest rates in the future than expected, ... It is uncharacteristically blunt.
comments economy included none range
(Greenspan's) comments on the economy regaining traction included a range of examples, but all of them have caveats attached, and none are that convincing,
above economy head higher hikes inflation makers offset oil peek policy pressures price raising reacting situation slow starting time until
Up until recently, oil price hikes have offset disinflation. This time around, we're in a situation where inflation is starting to peek its head above the parapet, and policy makers will see it more as an inflation threat. That's problematic -- if they have to start reacting to higher inflation pressures by raising rates, that does slow the economy down.