Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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The recovery is proceeding, but gradually, and that's actually healthy. It's the kind of recovery central bankers dream of -- gradual, not explosive, and therefore long-lasting and sustainable.
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What the Fed showed was that extraordinary circumstances require an extraordinary strategy. Not only are they moving rates to lows not seen since the early '60s, they're prepared to move them a lot lower.
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We will see more bad news on the employment front. We see unemployment going to 6.1 percent or 6.2 percent before it's over; no way are we going to see that coming down while we're creating so few jobs.
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When one looks at the MBA data that reveal that applications for the purchases of new homes are down 7.5 percent on a year-over-year basis, it is not hard to see that the gain reported this month is not a sustainable trend.
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We will eventually see the negative impact of rising rates -- we can't dodge that bullet -- but doesn't usually happen at the beginning of the cycle. I'm not sure we will continue to see the market beating expectations by these margins, but I don't see the market collapsing in the next month or so.
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We will continue on this jobless path, where we're not creating enough jobs to make a real difference to the economy, for at least another six to nine months.
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This rules out any Fed action until November -- or perhaps until next year.
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This report was very encouraging. It gives us stronger employment growth than the market was expecting while none of negative side effects of economic growth are present, such as higher inflationary pressure from wages.
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This report supports Greenspan's rosy economic view that the economy is likely to continue to grow unabated this quarter thereby justifying continued increases in short-term rates.
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This report should soothe the fears of monetary policy-makers who are trying to adjust policy to prevent the economy from overheating.
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This report kind of confirms the market's fears that the economy is limping around on just one foot. At same time, I don't think this report is telling us we're moving toward a recession.
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This report is good news because it says the labor market is turning the corner, but it's still not strong enough to declare victory.
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This report is certainly consistent with an economy that is trying to make a recovery, but a weak recovery. When you start to back out the volatile components, it's not all that weak. We're picking it up, but these numbers tell us the economy will come back slowly.
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This report is actually quite favorable for financial markets since we see very little inflation pressure while simultaneously seeing job creation inching up,