Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
beginning certainly forecast million patch soft stands year
I think we will get that bump. I think this is temporary. My forecast at the beginning of the year still stands for 2.5 million new jobs. But I certainly do see a soft patch here.
consumer growth last next outside weaker year
Outside of energy, the consumer is fine. That's why growth this year will be weaker than last year, and it will be weaker next year than this year.
ahead economic likely pillar provide recovery support view year
This would provide another pillar of support for the view that the economic recovery in the year ahead is likely to be gradual,
assume chinese five generate immediate incorrect landing people seeing soft trying watching work year
People watching the Chinese trying to generate a soft landing think that, if it doesn't work in five minutes, it must not be working. We're not seeing immediate results, but I think it's incorrect to assume that, a year or a year and a-half from now, we're not going to see some of these effects. We will.
capital next year
Next year it may be tepid with a capital T.
behind creeping federal general housing increase last market mortgage rates reserve seen several tone year
Several times in the last year we've seen mortgage rates creeping up and housing hasn't responded. Now the Federal Reserve has put some credibility behind the increase in rates. I think it set a general tone for the housing market that it'll be a lot more muted.
fed finish raising rates stimulus until view year
In view of the stimulus already out there, I think the Fed will finish out the year by raising rates until the end.
fever market present sign year
The bidding fever that was present a year or so ago has all but disappeared, and that's another sign that this market is slowing.
continue fed likely raise rates year
The Fed is likely to continue to raise rates for much of the year 2005.
april checks clear closer people start tend
I think we'll see a clear acceleration of refund payments as we get closer to the April deadline, when the checks really start to flow. People tend to procrastinate.
chain discount factor happening issue retail store
I think a seasonal factor is part of the issue here, but you can't discount it all. Look at what is happening with chain store sales. They've been pretty weak. Some of it (weak retail employment) is real.
auto despite disappear fact fell happen incentives likely limited question raises sales
I think it was interesting that sales fell despite the fact that we had limited auto incentives in November. It raises the question of what is likely to happen once these incentives disappear entirely.
bounce clearly december fed hike hurricane puts rate report shows
I think this report clearly shows that we got a hurricane bounce back. It also puts the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December back in play.
apply employment gravity laws monetary report shows
I think this employment report shows that the laws of gravity do apply to monetary policy,