Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
actual budding control evidence exactly fear fed greatest likely lost moderate recovery shows
Going into this report, many analysts greatest fear was that the Fed may have lost some control of this budding recovery. The actual evidence shows that a moderate recovery is exactly what we are likely to get.
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The new-home sales market is the canary in the coal mine. Builders have a better clue as to what the right price is to move a house.
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I think the (PPI and core PPI) numbers will make the Fed a bit more comfortable that the status quo is fine, ... The core PPI is the one they really care about. It's really telling us that the inflation story is not running away from us. That doesn't mean the debate won't be heated. But this number does tilt the apple cart.
headline key number
The key number was not the headline (overall CPI) number,
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It confirms the belief that the weakness in retail sales was the result of a bunker mentality in the wake of the terrible events of Sept. 11.
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Recent speculation about the demise of the housing boom has been greatly exaggerated.
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The recovery is proceeding, but gradually, and that's actually healthy. It's the kind of recovery central bankers dream of -- gradual, not explosive, and therefore long-lasting and sustainable.
becoming formula higher interested looking people precisely seeing seem start time urgency
There doesn't seem to be any real urgency for firms to start hiring, precisely at a time we're seeing a reemergence of people becoming interested in looking for a job, ... Put the two together, and you have a formula for higher unemployment.
sentiment
With sentiment under considerable short- and long-term pressure, we know that 2002 is not going to be anything like 2001 for the consumer.
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The primary catalyst in the market remains energy, it continues to rule the day. But then we saw that energy prices started to go up, and that took some of the luster off the gains.
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While job losses may be ebbing, we have yet to see any signs of outsized hiring. This will not come ... until we transition from a slow-growing expansion to a normal economic recovery.
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We're basically missing 5.1 million jobs at this stage of the expansion. You could even call it the case of the missing jobs, ... different paradigm.
basically
What this does is basically vindicate Greenspan's policy,
basically
What this does is basically vindicate Greenspan's policy. In 2000, we're going to see more of a gradualist policy.