Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
durable gain goods heels number previous
The much stronger-than-expected durable goods number is significant because it comes on the heels of a sizable gain the previous month,
report running tells
Nothing in this report tells things are running out of control.
confidence number pressure retail saw takes terrible
This confidence is encouraging and takes some of the pressure off the terrible number we saw with retail sales.
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This is an economy coming back, but it's going to be a moderate recovery. But we should not despair, since a balanced recovery has the best chance of turning into a longer-lasting recovery.
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These numbers give us an indication of the trend, and the trend is still telling us we're in improvement mode, not in breakout mode, where job growth is surging,
conditions energy labor market movement prices seen
The movement in labor market conditions is a lot more important than the movement in energy prices. Only when labor market conditions are deteriorating have we historically seen that energy prices have an impact.
consumer core energy fed focus worked yesterday
All the focus is on the core number. The Fed said yesterday that energy has not worked its way down to core consumer prices.
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I think a 0.2 percent decline in economic growth due Katrina's impact on oil and the regional economy is a realistic assumption,
anxious core draw fed line meeting parties rise shows statement willing
I think if we get another 0.3 rise in the core CPI, I think the Fed will want to draw line in the sand, ... The Fed statement shows there are a lot of anxious parties at that meeting willing to be (more) aggressive.
continue fed likely raise rates year
The Fed is likely to continue to raise rates for much of the year 2005.
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I haven't seen increases in the workweek strong enough to augur that all of a sudden employment is going to surge, ... If I had seen that in the past couple of months, I would be more optimistic.
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Reading through the housing tea leaves suggests that the housing boom is becoming a bit long in the tooth. And while this outcome does not necessarily signal a collapse in activity just around the corner, it does suggest that the housing sector's best days are probably behind us.
early labor market seems slow start
The labor market seems to be improving, but still at such slow pace, it's probably too early to start celebrating.
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I don't think the recovery is in danger. But I think what we have here is a situation where the Federal Reserve will probably look at the numbers a lot more closely. If we see another two or three economic statistics that surprise us, yes the Fed can pause and not raise rates in August.