Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
claims close coming corner ignore labor market trend turning
We can't ignore the trend -- jobless claims have been coming down. We're at least close to turning the corner on the labor market front.
current employment faster growth likely trend until
We are not likely to see faster employment growth until the current growth trend in productivity slows significantly.
growth line necessary normally percent produce
We're not going to get the 1.5 percent productivity growth necessary to produce all those jobs. Such a fall-off would be out of line with what normally happens.
average decline employment general immediate indicator labor leading length pattern tells weakness week work
The decline in the length of the average work week ... tells us this leading employment indicator does not foreshadow any immediate end to this general pattern of weakness in the labor market.
along decline economic economy hours impact losing lost means tenth
The decline in hours means the economy will be limping along once again. Every tenth of an hour lost has the same economic impact as losing 200,000 jobs.
challenges confidence consumer continue economy labor market numbers pose quarter serious soft
We still have a labor market that's deteriorating, and today's numbers epitomize that. We're going to continue to see deterioration, which will pose serious challenges to consumer confidence and keep the economy soft for another quarter or two.
conclude current cycle further led
We are led to conclude that the current tightening cycle still has further to go.
coming consumer fourth growth percent rest spending
We're coming off 6 percent consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter, and that's going to moderate. It's not going to collapse, but see we spending in the neighborhood of 2 to 3 percent for the rest of the year.
basically
What this does is basically vindicate Greenspan's policy. In 2000, we're going to see more of a gradualist policy.
basically
What this does is basically vindicate Greenspan's policy,
battery conclusion despite effects energy exclude higher job market prices recent
When we exclude the effects of the recent hurricanes, we have to come away with the conclusion that despite higher energy prices and a battery of hurricanes, the job market is not doing all that bad.
basically case jobs million missing stage
We're basically missing 5.1 million jobs at this stage of the expansion. You could even call it the case of the missing jobs, ... different paradigm.
add confident empty environment growth inventory knows rising shelves suggest
The plunge in inventory accumulation does suggest that firms are not confident enough to add merchandise to their shelves. But they will not be able to do this indefinitely because everyone knows that sporting empty shelves in a rising growth environment is not prudent.
core cost early energy increases jump limited longer mature pass power pricing rest saw seeing today whenever
We still see limited penetration into the rest of the economy. It's too early to say you're seeing pricing power to pass on the energy cost increases just because you saw just a jump in the core PPI number. The world has changed. In the old traditional world, whenever you had mature expansion, you had pricing power. Today with globalization, that's no longer the case.