Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
chain discount factor happening issue retail store
I think a seasonal factor is part of the issue here, but you can't discount it all. Look at what is happening with chain store sales. They've been pretty weak. Some of it (weak retail employment) is real.
certainly continue executing fed gives green growth industrial license light monetary prevent retail signs slow takes total whatever
This gives the Fed license to continue executing monetary policy. If they see any signs of slow growth in employment, industrial production, or retail sales, they certainly have the green light to make another cut. They have total flexibility to do whatever it takes to prevent a recession.
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This confidence is encouraging and takes some of the pressure off the terrible number we saw with retail sales.
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The retail sales figures clearly prove that betting against the consumer is a sucker's bet. Not surprisingly, the ex-auto figure on retail sales tears down the argument that consumers are only buying cars and houses.
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These numbers are essentially telling us that retail sales were artificially boosted by zero-percent financing. These numbers are not going to do anything to discourage the Fed from thinking that the balance of risk in the economy is toward weakness.
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It confirms the belief that the weakness in retail sales was the result of a bunker mentality in the wake of the terrible events of Sept. 11.
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The outsized gain in housing starts was influenced by the same variable dominating most of the other headline stats like the retail sales and industrial production, namely weather. Everyone knows that housing starts is a volatile number that generally reports wide swings.
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I think we'll see a clear acceleration of refund payments as we get closer to the April deadline, when the checks really start to flow. People tend to procrastinate.
beginning certainly forecast million patch soft stands year
I think we will get that bump. I think this is temporary. My forecast at the beginning of the year still stands for 2.5 million new jobs. But I certainly do see a soft patch here.
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I think it was interesting that sales fell despite the fact that we had limited auto incentives in November. It raises the question of what is likely to happen once these incentives disappear entirely.
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I think this report clearly shows that we got a hurricane bounce back. It also puts the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December back in play.
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I think this employment report shows that the laws of gravity do apply to monetary policy,
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I think these numbers pretty much put a nail in the coffin of the notion that a 75 basis-point (three-quarters of a percentage point) cut will occur. I think (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan will get his wish for a move at the regular meeting, but they will do a 50 basis-point (half-point) cut.
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I think these numbers have the potential to drive the Fed to do an inter-meeting cut. The economy is slowing down, and I think we'll see more of this before it's over.