Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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The report illustrates the fact that housing is not defying gravity and is not likely to do so this year. We're going to see chipping away of housing.
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Going into this report, many analysts greatest fear was that the Fed may have lost some control of this budding recovery. The actual evidence shows that a moderate recovery is exactly what we are likely to get.
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Investors will be intently listening to see if he says anything that clears up what the future monetary path is likely to be,
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You typically see, from the trough of a recession to the time when the recession ends, a 1.3-percent gain in payrolls, ... From when the recession likely ended, in December of last year, we've had 0.004 percent gain, instead of that 1.3 percent gain. There's a pent-up demand for labor, given such a jobless recovery.
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The Fed is likely to continue to raise rates for much of the year 2005.
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More rate cuts may not be forthcoming, but the Fed is also not likely to start raising rates as quickly as financial markets expect.
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Our analysis suggests the pace of consumer spending is likely to slow in the near-term future,
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I think it was interesting that sales fell despite the fact that we had limited auto incentives in November. It raises the question of what is likely to happen once these incentives disappear entirely.
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A declining deficit may be signaling a slight loss of economic growth momentum.
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This economic recovery is a lot more fragile than most of us thought.
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You're seeing inventories creeping up and affordability pinching more and more, and you're seeing long-term rates creeping up. All that suggests a trimming of housing activity.
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Oil prices have not been a positive for the equity market with the potential for rising inflation.
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The resiliency of the consumer is very impressive in the wake of so many terror warnings. One cautionary note is that, moving forward, these numbers may soften, as those warnings are still coming.
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Despite the fact that the unemployment rate remains low relative to prior economic downturns, the burden on the unemployed population has been the most severe, by one measure, since at least 1972.