Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
average based bit conclude consumer credit difficult
Based on these trends, it is not too difficult to conclude that the average consumer is probably a bit overextended from a credit standpoint,
borders business close less overall pay pressure secret workers
If we close the borders and have less undocumented workers, it would put some upward pressure on overall wages. It's no secret business will have to pay workers more money.
bite cause debate doubt economy fairly growing percent remains whether
I don't have any doubt it's going to bite. The debate is whether it'll bite enough to cause a recession, and I don't think so. Because the economy remains fairly strong, it can withstand these one-two punches. If we were growing at 1 or 2 percent and we got this same one-two punches, the ref would tell everyone to go home.
economic fallen far jobs million prior short today typical
We've fallen far short of prior economic expansions, ... We're about 5-1/2 million (jobs) short of where would be today if this were a typical expansion.
fast information reacting
Today, information disperses so fast that we're reacting in nanoseconds to the news,
actual budding control evidence exactly fear fed greatest likely lost moderate recovery shows
Going into this report, many analysts greatest fear was that the Fed may have lost some control of this budding recovery. The actual evidence shows that a moderate recovery is exactly what we are likely to get.
bullish fine justify line measured sound status walk
He can't sound bullish and he can't sound bearish, ... He has walk a very fine line to justify maintaining this measured status quo.
economy fed greenspan seems structure underlying willing
Greenspan has to give reassurance that, if things deteriorate, the Fed is willing to act. But the underlying structure of the economy seems pretty good.
continues controlled dollar net positive
If the dollar continues to weaken at a controlled pace, it's a net positive for the U.S. economy.
buy lose people
If people lose their jobs, they're not going to go buy a car.
clear consumers given mostly net oil percent prices producers wealth
Given that we import more than 50 percent of our oil consumption from abroad, it is clear that as these prices rise, we are essentially transferring net wealth from U.S. consumers to oil producers that are mostly located overseas.
debate expect fed given impact policy release
Given our forecast, we do not expect that this statistical release will have much impact on the policy debate when the Fed meets,
believe current labor market report safe strength true
I believe that it is safe to say that this report understates the true strength of current labor market conditions.
decline energy expect low lower
This was low because of lower energy prices. I don't think that's a decline we can expect to continue.