Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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Reading through the housing tea leaves suggests that the housing boom is becoming a bit long in the tooth. And while this outcome does not necessarily signal a collapse in activity just around the corner, it does suggest that the housing sector's best days are probably behind us.
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Our analysis suggests the pace of consumer spending is likely to slow in the near-term future,
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Corporate earnings growth is slowing. Earnings might be growing at 9 to 10 percent, and that's still impressive. But they're going in the wrong direction.
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Continuity is all but assured. The Fed has worked hard to win credibility and Greenspan is not going to throw it away in the final few months of his term.
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Continuing claims numbers are very closely tied to unemployment, and they are skyrocketing.
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Essentially, the energy prices outlook offers almost a lose, lose scenario. Bad news for inflation if they rise and bad news for the economy if they rise too much.
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The risk of deflation has increased. Is it a significant risk? Probably not.
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The rise in the unemployment rate takes much of the sting away from the robust gain in payrolls from a monetary policy perspective. The big fear ahead of the release of this report was that labor markets were overheating.
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The much weaker-than-expected rise in payrolls truly confirms the cautious demeanor expressed by various Federal Reserve policy officials.
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The much stronger-than-expected durable goods number is significant because it comes on the heels of a sizable gain the previous month,
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The movement in labor market conditions is a lot more important than the movement in energy prices. Only when labor market conditions are deteriorating have we historically seen that energy prices have an impact.
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A declining deficit may be signaling a slight loss of economic growth momentum.
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Additionally, it was encouraging to see a small increase in the length of the work week, which usually serves as a leading indicator of future employment growth.
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This is an economy coming back, but it's going to be a moderate recovery. But we should not despair, since a balanced recovery has the best chance of turning into a longer-lasting recovery.