Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
ask consumers decline economy funds mortgage reliable source turning
You've got to ask yourself, will we have another 100-to-150 basis-point decline in mortgage rates? ... I would say that's a stretch, so it's not going to be a reliable source of funds for consumers -- we'll need to see the economy turning around.
december demand gain given instead last likely percent recession time
You typically see, from the trough of a recession to the time when the recession ends, a 1.3-percent gain in payrolls, ... From when the recession likely ended, in December of last year, we've had 0.004 percent gain, instead of that 1.3 percent gain. There's a pent-up demand for labor, given such a jobless recovery.
couple itself quarters stimulus work
All this stimulus is going to work, ... just not overnight. It's probably going to take a couple of quarters to work itself out.
affected jobs loss
The GDP doesn't take into consideration loss of wealth, ... It's affected by jobs and productivity.
job market worse
The job market is going to get worse -- this is a jobless recovery.
distorted fair jobs maybe report
I think it's fair to say it'll be the least important or most distorted jobs report in memory. Maybe both.
costs energy goes increase reasons various
It could be the weather. Distribution costs increase with the cost of energy. Fertilizer goes up when energy goes up. There are various reasons for the surge.
belief bunker events mentality result retail sales terrible wake weakness
It confirms the belief that the weakness in retail sales was the result of a bunker mentality in the wake of the terrible events of Sept. 11.
alan bank central excuse federal form greenspan markets moved neutral operating raise reality reserve spoke time toward
I think the markets probably overreacted when the Federal Reserve first moved toward a neutral operating directive. When Alan Greenspan spoke this time, I think the reality set in and that is, yes, the central bank has a neutral directive, but it's more like an ultra-right (hawkish) form of neutral directive. ... Any time they get an excuse to raise rates, they're going to take it.
apple bit care core debate fed inflation mean numbers quo running status telling tilt
I think the (PPI and core PPI) numbers will make the Fed a bit more comfortable that the status quo is fine, ... The core PPI is the one they really care about. It's really telling us that the inflation story is not running away from us. That doesn't mean the debate won't be heated. But this number does tilt the apple cart.
action minimize numbers
I think the numbers minimize the probability of any action this year.
becomes becoming equity fed goes harshly language looking markets normal rate secondary talks
I think that if the Fed goes back to normal language about 'measured pace' (of rate hikes), it becomes a secondary story, ... It is only becoming a big story because of the uncertainty about what they were going to do. The equity markets will be looking for language here again. If it talks too harshly about inflationary pressures, it could be unfriendly for stocks.
building certainly fed looks power price pricing range relatively relax tolerable within
I think the Fed certainly looks at this as building up as pricing power on the part of companies, ... But (the price index) is still within the tolerable range for the Fed. That's not to say the Fed can relax and go on vacation, but I would say they're a relatively benign.
equity gives japan jump markets nice tail wind
I think the big jump in Japan gives a nice tail wind to the equity markets this morning.