Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
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The lower-than-expected number of new jobless claims shows that the labor market is continuing to improve. It suggests that the economy is strong and that companies are feeling more comfortable about hanging on to workers.
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The jobless claims drop shows good strength in the labor market at the end of the year. It shows that the economy has recovered after the hurricanes and is heading into the new year with good momentum and good job prospects.
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I think it's good news for the economy. When you take away the GM strike and average last month's figures with this month's, you see employment growth at moderate levels, which is good for sustainable growth.
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I think the headline number is a bit misleading. It doesn't suggest that the economy is in trouble. Consumer durables production is looking solid, so it's looking like there's still going to be strong first quarter GDP growth.
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We probably won't see good (employment) numbers in the next couple of months because of the loss of jobs in the Gulf Coast region,
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If unemployment continues to decline and the economy grows at an above-average pace ... I think they (the Fed) will be a little more concerned about bottlenecks.
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If you put the two months together it still looks as if retail sales were strong at the beginning of the year -- an average increase of 0.8 percent for each of the two months.
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If you look at the 12-month change in producer prices, it's positive 0.9 percent. As recently as May, the 12-month change was negative 2.8 percent -- so there were a lot more deflationary pressures earlier in year, and those seem to be abating.
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If you look back at the'70s and'80s, the Fed was perceived to be the man behind the curtains. Today, it's looked at as a more prominent player. I'd say (Greenspan's) better known than members of the Supreme Court, and that wasn't true of his predecessors.
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It still shows a pretty healthy economy at this point. The manufacturing side of things and business spending will be good this year.
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It shows that consumers are feeling poorly about the economy, similar to what we've see in other recessions. Confidence is not as low as it was in the recessions of the early 1990s and early 1980s, but it is dropping in response to the worsening employment situation and the concern about the terrorism threat.
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It's not a big drop. It's reflecting the fact that the economy has improved this year, but not enough that consumers are convinced things are sufficiently better.
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The Fed will probably not put a lot of emphasis on this data and instead will be looking more at the economy after the hurricane.
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The Fed will probably hold rates steady at a low level as long as they can. And I think as long as the unemployment rate is rising, they'll maintain a policy bias toward weakness.