Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
change earlier negative percent positive pressures producer recently seem
If you look at the 12-month change in producer prices, it's positive 0.9 percent. As recently as May, the 12-month change was negative 2.8 percent -- so there were a lot more deflationary pressures earlier in year, and those seem to be abating.
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It suggests the drag on the economy from the trade deficit in the third quarter will not be as great and could help revise up third-quarter GDP a bit,
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The Fed will overlook the strength in the economy before Katrina and focus more on getting the economy back on its feet and probably will hold policy steady until we see how the economy is actually dealing with the shock of lost jobs and high gasoline prices resulting from Katrina.
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The increases (in gas prices) looks like it's hitting a critical level.
continued growth report showing
The (February) manufacturing report was a little better than expected, showing continued growth in manufacturing.
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The values of the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar, as measured relative to the U.S. dollar, have been important signals of changing trends in global economic activity.
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The housing market is cooling off, but not too much, and inflation looks relatively benign.
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Historically, when we see confidence decline, we have to watch and see if it shows up also affecting spending. We'll be watching closely to see ... whether the decline in confidence is more of a psychological factor or a real factor affecting spending.
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It looks like real spending was quite healthy for the start of the third quarter.
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Claims are still suggesting that the economy started the year with a strong employment situation.
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The Fed will probably hold rates steady at a low level as long as they can. And I think as long as the unemployment rate is rising, they'll maintain a policy bias toward weakness.
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The Fed may be looking at oil prices as a reason for the economy to falter and not a reason for it to overheat, so they won't want to raise rates yet,
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I think the headline number is a bit misleading. It doesn't suggest that the economy is in trouble. Consumer durables production is looking solid, so it's looking like there's still going to be strong first quarter GDP growth.
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The employment component was just a tad lower than what we saw in November so it's still a healthy number.