Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
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I think the headline number is a bit misleading. It doesn't suggest that the economy is in trouble. Consumer durables production is looking solid, so it's looking like there's still going to be strong first quarter GDP growth.
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If we hadn't heard from Greenspan last week that the Fed is still worried about an uneven recovery, we might be more upset about these numbers. But Greenspan is concerned that these retail sales numbers could falter later on so these numbers probably won't have that great an impact.
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The lower-than-expected number of new jobless claims shows that the labor market is continuing to improve. It suggests that the economy is strong and that companies are feeling more comfortable about hanging on to workers.
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The bond market had been thinking that the weak economic numbers that we've seen would cause the Fed to think twice about raising rates,
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It looks like these numbers are consistent with a small decline in fourth quarter GDP,
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Productivity numbers on a quarter-to-quarter basis are very volatile. The downwardly revised second-quarter numbers could easily be revised upward in the third quarter.
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These numbers look as if there's no urgent need to raise interest rates much further.
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It's a good number for the economy. Labor markets are improving, and that increases the likelihood that the economy will remain strong.
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Clearly today's numbers show that the economy is still healthy and that the Federal Reserve probably will still be concerned about inflation for at least a couple more months.
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Generally I think these numbers could reduce some of the concerns about a quick or dramatic change in Fed policy.
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It suggests the drag on the economy from the trade deficit in the third quarter will not be as great and could help revise up third-quarter GDP a bit,
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The Fed will overlook the strength in the economy before Katrina and focus more on getting the economy back on its feet and probably will hold policy steady until we see how the economy is actually dealing with the shock of lost jobs and high gasoline prices resulting from Katrina.
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The increases (in gas prices) looks like it's hitting a critical level.
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The (February) manufacturing report was a little better than expected, showing continued growth in manufacturing.