Howard Archer
Howard Archer
data gains house prices provides sharp support sustain time unable view
The Nationwide data provides support for our long-held view that house prices will be unable to sustain sharp gains for some time to come.
admit cut evidence further guarantees improvement interest looking marked rate rates sector whether
The evidence of marked improvement in the manufacturing sector further guarantees there will be no interest rate cut this Thursday. Indeed, we admit it is looking increasingly questionable whether interest rates will be trimmed further.
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The limited correction in the Halifax house price index in January following the marked rises during the latter months of 2005 reinforces our strong doubts that house prices will see sustained sharp rises over the coming months.
coming contain further inclined monetary months policy remains
All the indications are that the ECB remains inclined to tighten monetary policy further over the coming months to contain inflationary risks.
consumer energy evidence higher increasing inflation late pay price pushed recently starting
This confirms that late in 2005 there was still no evidence that pay was starting to be pushed up by recently higher consumer price inflation and increasing energy bills.
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The latest data - including the improvement in manufacturing activity and current strength of the housing market - has increased the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates will be up.
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Our Sunday lunches have been an excellent flagship because that is often many people's first experience of our menus.
activity clearly coming higher house housing increased led market move prices recent risk
This increased housing market activity has clearly led to some recent firming in house prices, and there is undeniably a risk that prices could move sharply higher over the coming months.
activity confidence floor house housing increasing interest likely market rate rising
Activity is benefiting from August's interest rate cut, increasing confidence in the housing market and still rising employment. This is likely to put a floor under house prices.
consumer energy feeding high housing looks months oil prices remain round second sidelines spending strength
The MPC could remain on the sidelines for some months to come as it monitors the strength of consumer spending and the housing market, and also looks to see if high oil and energy prices are feeding through to have second round inflationary effects.
activity continued data evident half housing indicate lending market mortgage robust second
Overall, the mortgage approvals and lending data indicate that the more robust housing market activity evident in the second half of 2005 has continued into 2006.
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While the February mortgage lending and approval data are relatively healthy, there are hints that housing market activity could be starting to lose momentum after several months of improvement.
bank exactly growth interest matched months rates remain several unchanged
Year-on-year growth of 2.2-percent exactly matched the Bank of England's forecast... reinforcing expectations that interest rates are set to remain unchanged for several more months to come.
basis believe eventually further interest points rates
We believe that interest rates will eventually come down by a further 25 basis points to 4.25%.