Howard Archer
Howard Archer
activity current data eventual housing improvement including increased interest latest market move next odds rates strength
The latest data - including the improvement in manufacturing activity and current strength of the housing market - has increased the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates will be up.
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Our Sunday lunches have been an excellent flagship because that is often many people's first experience of our menus.
activity clearly coming higher house housing increased led market move prices recent risk
This increased housing market activity has clearly led to some recent firming in house prices, and there is undeniably a risk that prices could move sharply higher over the coming months.
activity confidence floor house housing increasing interest likely market rate rising
Activity is benefiting from August's interest rate cut, increasing confidence in the housing market and still rising employment. This is likely to put a floor under house prices.
consumer energy feeding high housing looks months oil prices remain round second sidelines spending strength
The MPC could remain on the sidelines for some months to come as it monitors the strength of consumer spending and the housing market, and also looks to see if high oil and energy prices are feeding through to have second round inflationary effects.
activity continued data evident half housing indicate lending market mortgage robust second
Overall, the mortgage approvals and lending data indicate that the more robust housing market activity evident in the second half of 2005 has continued into 2006.
bank certainly england further house housing interest market move prices rates risk rules sending stimulate wary
For now at least, the Bank of England will be very wary that a trimming of interest rates could excessively stimulate the housing market and risk sending house prices markedly higher. It certainly further rules out a move today.
bank change england healthy interest next overall rates relatively report sector service time unchanged
This is still a pretty healthy report overall that suggests that the service sector has started 2006 relatively strongly. The report does little to change perceptions that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged next week, and very probably for some time to come after then.
bank belief consumer england optimistic retail retreat stunning
This is a really stunning retreat in retail sales. It reinforces our belief that the Bank of England is too optimistic about consumer spending.
bank benign contained england february inflation line overall report
This is still a pretty benign report overall and broadly in line with Bank of England expectations contained in the February Inflation Report.
although bank consumer cut door early england interest keeps levels open prefer rate spending strength wage wait
This (CPI data) very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February, although the Bank of England may still prefer to wait while it monitors the strength of consumer spending and wage settlement levels early in 2006.
consumer continue costs domestic high input intense relatively subdued
Relatively subdued consumer spending, intense domestic and international competition, and high input costs continue to dampen ... the sector.
belief consumer february fourth performance quarter relatively seen spending strong survey sustain unable
The February CBI survey reinforces our belief that consumer spending will be unable to sustain the relatively strong performance seen in the fourth quarter of 2005.
drag expansion fourth growth major modest overall quarter sector
The sector may see modest expansion in the first quarter of 2006, having been a major drag on overall growth in the fourth quarter.