Howard Archer
Howard Archer
below data features headline positive
Below the headline data there are some positive features that should not be overlooked.
data gains house prices provides sharp support sustain time unable view
The Nationwide data provides support for our long-held view that house prices will be unable to sustain sharp gains for some time to come.
activity current data eventual housing improvement including increased interest latest market move next odds rates strength
The latest data - including the improvement in manufacturing activity and current strength of the housing market - has increased the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates will be up.
activity continued data evident half housing indicate lending market mortgage robust second
Overall, the mortgage approvals and lending data indicate that the more robust housing market activity evident in the second half of 2005 has continued into 2006.
bank basis believe clear contained cutting data early earnings encourage england evidence further future hold immediate interest likely march moderation pay points rates remaining seeks signs sustained wage
The earnings data may encourage the Bank of England to hold off from cutting interest rates in the immediate future as March while it seeks sustained clear evidence that the pay settlements for 2006 are remaining contained (the early signs are that wage moderation is continuing). However, we believe that interest rates are likely to be trimmed by a further 25 basis points by May.
activity borne buyer data evidence extended healthy housing increased latest lending market mortgage performance recent showing survey
Healthy mortgage lending data show that housing market activity extended its recent firmer performance in December. This is also borne out by the latest survey evidence consistently showing increased buyer interest.
cutting data interest prompt rates unlikely weak
The GDP data (is) unlikely to be weak enough to prompt the MPC into cutting interest rates in November,
chain data effects energy following headline high inflation limiting oil pressures price producer strong supply welcome
Following the higher-than-expected headline producer price inflation data for January... (Tuesday's data) is welcome reassurance that strong competitive pressures through the supply chain are still limiting the pass-through effects of high oil and energy prices.
consumer equity mortgage peak reduced since spending weighed
The markedly reduced mortgage equity withdrawal since its fourth-quarter 2003 peak has undoubtedly weighed down significantly on consumer spending since mid-2004.
accelerate basis believe buyer doubtful floor higher highly house interest keeping likely move prices remain soon start sustained thereby time
This is likely to put a floor under house prices, but we remain highly doubtful that house prices will move substantially higher on a sustained basis any time soon. If house prices start to accelerate markedly, we believe buyer interest will soon diminish, thereby keeping a lid on prices.
boosts clear coming december demand domestic economic hopes improvement kick months sentiment support
The clear improvement in economic sentiment in December boosts hopes that domestic demand will increasingly kick in over the coming months to support growth.
appears chain contain continuing effects energy high oil pressures round second street strong supply
It appears that strong competitive pressures on the high street and through the supply chain are continuing to contain any second round inflationary effects of high oil and energy prices.
activity adds annual buyer cent climb degree evidence house housing increased inflation limited low market november october per price prices recent recently reported stronger
The climb in annual house price inflation to 2.5 per cent in November from a nine-year low of 1.8 per cent in October reported by the ODPM adds to the recent evidence that house prices have firmed to a limited degree recently amid stronger housing market activity and increased buyer interest.
appears boost needed sales
It appears that significant discounting is still needed to boost sales volumes.