Howard Archer
Howard Archer
activity continued data evident half housing indicate lending market mortgage robust second
Overall, the mortgage approvals and lending data indicate that the more robust housing market activity evident in the second half of 2005 has continued into 2006.
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Robust service sector activity in February makes it even more of a cast-iron certainty that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged next Thursday.
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No change was no surprise, given recent overall evidence of modestly stronger economic activity and a more robust housing market.
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December survey evidence showing robust service sector activity, stronger retail sales and firmer house prices has temporarily at least alleviated some concern over the economy's softness and eased pressure on the MPC for an imminent cut in interest rates.
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Our Sunday lunches have been an excellent flagship because that is often many people's first experience of our menus.
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It currently seems a pretty safe bet that interest rates will not change for several more months to come, if at all this year.
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Manufacturers will be hoping that healthier growth in the euro zone and a recently softer pound will increasingly feed through to give them with a significant boost in 2006.
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It appears that strong competitive pressures on the high street and through the supply chain are continuing to contain any second round inflationary effects of high oil and energy prices.
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It appears that significant discounting is still needed to boost sales volumes.
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While the CBI survey indicated a marked softening in consumer spending following the relatively strong December performance, it nevertheless indicated a significantly stronger performance than that seen overall in recent months.
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With economic growth likely to remain below trend in the near term at least and unemployment set to continue rising, there is a very real danger that individual insolvencies and mortgage repossessions will climb markedly further over the coming months.
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With consumer price inflation below the 2% target level in both December and January and clearly below the levels forecast by the Bank of England in their November quarterly inflation report, a near-term interest rate cut suddenly looks a very real possibility again.
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While it is clearly premature to sound the all-clear on inflation, the October consumer prices data are largely reassuring for the Bank of England and boost hopes that inflation has peaked,
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With one member of the MPC voting for an interest rate cut in December and Bank of England chief economist, Charlie Bean, recently making some dovish comments, the odds of an interest rate cut early in 2006 are rising.