Howard Archer
Howard Archer
bank benign contained england february inflation line overall report
This is still a pretty benign report overall and broadly in line with Bank of England expectations contained in the February Inflation Report.
although bank consumer cut door early england interest keeps levels open prefer rate spending strength wage wait
This (CPI data) very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February, although the Bank of England may still prefer to wait while it monitors the strength of consumer spending and wage settlement levels early in 2006.
consumer continue costs domestic high input intense relatively subdued
Relatively subdued consumer spending, intense domestic and international competition, and high input costs continue to dampen ... the sector.
belief consumer february fourth performance quarter relatively seen spending strong survey sustain unable
The February CBI survey reinforces our belief that consumer spending will be unable to sustain the relatively strong performance seen in the fourth quarter of 2005.
drag expansion fourth growth major modest overall quarter sector
The sector may see modest expansion in the first quarter of 2006, having been a major drag on overall growth in the fourth quarter.
bank basis believe clear contained cutting data early earnings encourage england evidence further future hold immediate interest likely march moderation pay points rates remaining seeks signs sustained wage
The earnings data may encourage the Bank of England to hold off from cutting interest rates in the immediate future as March while it seeks sustained clear evidence that the pay settlements for 2006 are remaining contained (the early signs are that wage moderation is continuing). However, we believe that interest rates are likely to be trimmed by a further 25 basis points by May.
bet change currently interest months rates safe seems several
It currently seems a pretty safe bet that interest rates will not change for several more months to come, if at all this year.
christmas consumers december families held inflated opening performance reinforce spending suspicion themselves treat
If this is confirmed, it will reinforce our suspicion that the December performance was inflated by many consumers opening their wallets to treat their families and themselves at Christmas having held back their spending over much of 2005.
activity approval data february hints housing lending lose market momentum months mortgage relatively several starting
While the February mortgage lending and approval data are relatively healthy, there are hints that housing market activity could be starting to lose momentum after several months of improvement.
bank exactly growth interest matched months rates remain several unchanged
Year-on-year growth of 2.2-percent exactly matched the Bank of England's forecast... reinforcing expectations that interest rates are set to remain unchanged for several more months to come.
basis believe eventually further interest points rates
We believe that interest rates will eventually come down by a further 25 basis points to 4.25%.
activity bank consumer economic forecast growth held prove sluggish spending suspect
We suspect economic activity over much of 2006 will be held back by sluggish consumer spending and that the Bank of England's growth forecast will prove to be too optimistic.
areas consumer economy extended period risk spending
There is a very real risk that consumer spending will be muted for an extended period without any other areas of the economy compensating significantly.