Howard Archer
Howard Archer
bank basis believe clear contained cutting data early earnings encourage england evidence further future hold immediate interest likely march moderation pay points rates remaining seeks signs sustained wage
The earnings data may encourage the Bank of England to hold off from cutting interest rates in the immediate future as March while it seeks sustained clear evidence that the pay settlements for 2006 are remaining contained (the early signs are that wage moderation is continuing). However, we believe that interest rates are likely to be trimmed by a further 25 basis points by May.
bet change currently interest months rates safe seems several
It currently seems a pretty safe bet that interest rates will not change for several more months to come, if at all this year.
christmas consumers december families held inflated opening performance reinforce spending suspicion themselves treat
If this is confirmed, it will reinforce our suspicion that the December performance was inflated by many consumers opening their wallets to treat their families and themselves at Christmas having held back their spending over much of 2005.
activity borne buyer data evidence extended healthy housing increased latest lending market mortgage performance recent showing survey
Healthy mortgage lending data show that housing market activity extended its recent firmer performance in December. This is also borne out by the latest survey evidence consistently showing increased buyer interest.
domestic euro fragile hanging marks question relatively strength
The euro zone's upturn is still young and relatively fragile with significant question marks still hanging over the long-term strength of domestic demand.
bank decline england interest leaving output rates sway unchanged unlikely
The disappointing decline in manufacturing output is most unlikely to sway the Bank of England from leaving interest rates unchanged on Thursday.
conclusive evidence pay remaining sustained
The MPC still has to see conclusive sustained evidence that 2006 pay settlements are remaining contained.
boost europe feed growth hoping improving recent signs sustained uk western
Going forward, UK exporters will be fervently hoping that recent signs of improving growth in Western Europe will be sustained and will increasingly feed through to boost exports,
basis core deter further hiking inflation interest january limited points rates
Nevertheless, limited core inflation in January will not deter the ECB from hiking interest rates by a further 25 basis points on Thursday.
annual base due effects fall headline inflation march oil output price prices primarily producer reflecting rise sharp year
The fall in headline annual producer output price inflation in March was primarily due to base effects reflecting the particularly sharp rise in producer prices a year ago as oil prices surged.
consumer economic european hard improvement link marked past spending weak
The consumer is the weak link in the European economic upturn story. We're past the worst, but it's hard to see a marked improvement in spending coming.
encourage immediate impression inflation rates report trim view
The immediate impression is that the inflation report is pretty neutral, and it does little to encourage the view that the MPC could trim rates in the immediate future.
confidence consumer following held relatively sharp
Consumer confidence held up relatively well in February, following January's sharp bounce.
confidence consumer near spending term
Consumer confidence is faltering anew, which does not bode well for spending in the near term at least.