Howard Archer
Howard Archer
below data features headline positive
Below the headline data there are some positive features that should not be overlooked.
far happens meeting october
What happens after the October meeting is far from clear.
activity change economic evidence given housing modestly overall recent robust stronger
No change was no surprise, given recent overall evidence of modestly stronger economic activity and a more robust housing market.
along boosts consumer current exactly expected hopes housing picked retail sales strength
Retail sales picked up more than expected in March, which along with the current strength in the housing market, boosts hopes that the consumer is still alive, if not exactly kicking.
advantage brown budget clearly further minister mr prime
Mr Brown will clearly look to take advantage of the budget to further his credentials to take over as prime minister from Mr Blair.
basis core deter further hiking inflation interest january limited points rates
Nevertheless, limited core inflation in January will not deter the ECB from hiking interest rates by a further 25 basis points on Thursday.
drag expansion fourth growth major modest overall quarter sector
The sector may see modest expansion in the first quarter of 2006, having been a major drag on overall growth in the fourth quarter.
avoid brown finances guarantees hikes january major public spending strength tax
The strength of the public finances in January effectively guarantees that Brown will be able to avoid making any major tax hikes or significant spending cutbacks in March's budget.
deter euro further growth hike interest likely march raising rates remains zone
The slowdown in euro zone growth will not deter the ECB from raising interest rates in March and a further hike remains very likely in June.
committee hold impression interest months rates reinforce remain select several treasury
The testimonies to the Treasury Select Committee reinforce the impression that interest rates are set to remain on hold for several months to come.
belief case consumer growth healthy interest november picking rate retail sales spending
Pretty healthy retail sales growth in November reinforces belief that consumer spending is picking up to some extent, and reduces the case for a near-term interest rate cut.
across beginning consumer employment euro finally growth key labor markets pickup region rising since somewhat spending
Euro region labor markets are finally beginning to see genuine, if somewhat limited, improvement, boosted by the pickup in growth since mid-2005. Rising employment is key to boosting consumer spending across the euro region.
cut eventual increases interest move next odds prospects rates until
This significantly reduces the prospects of any interest cut until at least August. Indeed, it increases the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates could be up.
conclusive evidence pay remaining sustained
The MPC still has to see conclusive sustained evidence that 2006 pay settlements are remaining contained.